Australia Inflation Beats Forecast: CPI Up 0.8% in September, Annual Rate Hits 4.3%

Australia's Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% in September, above the 0.7% forecast, taking annual inflation to 4.3% from 4.0% in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Wednesday — a hotter-than-expected print that keeps pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of its November meeting.

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Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% in September 2026, above the 0.7% market forecast and up from a 0.4% rise in August, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday. Annual inflation climbed to 4.3%, beating the 4.2% forecast and rising from 4.0% in August.

Source: ABS via FXStreet

0.8%CPI month-on-month — actual (forecast 0.7%, previous 0.4%)

4.3%CPI year-on-year — actual (forecast 4.2%, previous 4.0%)

3.6%Trimmed mean inflation year-on-year (in line with estimates)

The CPI is Australia's official measure of how much household prices are rising. ABS detail reported by Market Index showed housing was the largest contributor, up 5.2% over the year on new dwelling costs and electricity, while transport rose 8.7% over the year as automotive fuel jumped 9.4% in September alone, after a 14.8% rise in August.

Underlying inflation was steadier: trimmed mean inflation was 3.6% over the year, in line with estimates and up from a revised 3.5% in August. For the September quarter as a whole, the CPI rose 1.3%, with quarterly trimmed mean inflation up 1.0%.

Inflation running above the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2–3% target band typically means traders expect interest rates to stay higher for longer, and a hotter-than-expected print can strengthen the case for a further rate rise. FXStreet reported the Australian dollar attracting buyers after the release, with AUD/USD up 0.19% on the day to trade at 0.7043 at the time of its report. The RBA's next policy meeting is on November 2–3.

Data flash: figures are from the ABS release, scheduled on the ForexFactory economic calendar for 8:30 pm EDT on Tuesday (11:30 am Wednesday in Sydney), rated high impact.

Sources

ABS via FXStreet — https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-cpi-expected-to-rise-to-42-in-september-202610272030 (CPI m/m +0.8% vs 0.7% forecast, prev +0.4%; CPI y/y +4.3% vs 4.2% forecast, prev +4.0%; AUD/USD +0.19% to 0.7043)

ABS via Market Index ASX live blog — https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/asx-200-live-today-wednesday-28th-october (trimmed mean 3.6% y/y in line; housing +5.2% y/y; transport +8.7% y/y; fuel +9.4% in September; quarterly CPI +1.3%, quarterly trimmed mean +1.0%)

Sydney Morning Herald breaking push — inflation has risen to 4.3%, putting pressure on the Reserve Bank (28 Oct 2026)

ForexFactory economic calendar feed — https://nfs.faireconomy.media/ff_calendar_thisweek.json (AUD CPI m/m and CPI y/y, High impact, scheduled 2026-10-27 20:30 EDT, forecasts 0.7% / 4.2%, previous 0.4% / 4.0%)