Canada's real gross domestic product (GDP) was essentially unchanged in August 2026, Statistics Canada reported on Friday — a second consecutive month without growth, after July also came in flat. The reading missed the 0.2% increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters and listed on the ForexFactory economic calendar, where the previous month's figure was 0.0%.

Source: Reuters via Devdiscourse

Statistics Canada's advance estimate pointed to a 0.1% decline in GDP in September, driven by decreases in manufacturing and in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction. With that preliminary September figure, the industry-based data suggest the economy grew 0.3% in the third quarter — an annualised pace of 1.3%, substantially lower than the Bank of Canada's latest projection of 2% annualised growth for the quarter, Reuters reported.

Source: Statistics Canada via The Northern Current

0.0%Canada real GDP, August (actual)
0.2%Forecast
0.0%July (previous)
-0.1%September advance estimate
+0.3%Q3 growth, preliminary

GDP by industry measures the inflation-adjusted value of what Canada's industries produce each month, so a flat reading means the economy as a whole neither grew nor shrank. Nine of the 20 industrial sectors expanded in August. Retail trade rose 1.2% and manufacturing grew 0.3% — its fifth increase in seven months — while construction added 0.2%. Those gains were offset by a 1.4% drop in wholesale trade and a 0.2% fall in the public sector, its first decline in six months, partly reflecting the winding down of census work. Overall, goods-producing industries rose 0.1% while services-producing industries edged down 0.1%, and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction was flat.

The August figures also partially capture the period after 50% US tariffs were applied to a range of Canadian goods starting August 22, a headwind economists have been watching for signs of damage to exporters and manufacturers.

A weaker-than-expected GDP reading typically weighs on the Canadian dollar and shapes what traders expect from the Bank of Canada's next interest-rate decisions, since a stalling economy usually means less pressure to raise rates. The September figures and the official third-quarter GDP estimate are due on November 30, Statistics Canada said, and the advance estimates may be revised.

Sources: Statistics Canada GDP by industry release for August 2026, reported by Reuters; ForexFactory economic calendar (CAD GDP m/m, scheduled 08:30 EDT, forecast 0.2%, previous 0.0%).