The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026, according to the advance estimate released on Thursday by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The reading beat the 3.2 percent forecast listed on the ForexFactory economic calendar, and picked up from second-quarter growth of 2.2 percent, which the BEA has revised up from an earlier 1.5 percent.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis via Agentic Tribune

GDP — gross domestic product — is the broadest measure of a country's economic output: the total value of goods and services produced. In plain terms, this report says the US economy expanded faster in the summer months of July, August and September than economists had expected.

3.4%Q3 GDP growth (annualised, advance)
3.2%Forecast (ForexFactory calendar)
2.2%Q2 growth (revised)

The BEA said the increase was driven by rises in investment, consumer spending and government spending, partly offset by a fall in exports, while imports — which are subtracted in the GDP calculation — rose. Consumer spending grew 3.8 percent, matching the previous quarter, according to a breakdown of the release. Real final sales, which strip out inventory changes, grew a slower 1.7 percent, suggesting stock-building helped lift the headline figure.

Source: InvestingLive

A separate Commerce Department report the same morning showed the PCE price index — the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve targets at 2 percent — rose 0.5 percent in September, taking the annual rate to 3.6 percent, CNN reported. Consumer spending rose 0.5 percent in September, slowing from 0.9 percent the month before, and was flat after adjusting for inflation.

Source: CNN via KION Central Coast

Stronger growth with inflation still above target typically means traders expect the Federal Reserve to stay cautious on cutting interest rates. The Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday. This is the advance estimate — the first of the BEA's three readings for the quarter — and it is based partly on incomplete data, so the figure may be revised in the second and third estimates.

Sources: US Bureau of Economic Analysis (advance estimate, released 8:30 a.m. ET on October 29, 2026); ForexFactory economic calendar (forecast 3.2 percent); CNN; InvestingLive.