Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remain about even heading into Sunday's presidential election runoff, a CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday showed, Reuters reported. In total votes, the right-wing senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46.3% compared with 45% for Lula. Counting only valid votes — excluding blank and null ballots, the basis on which Brazil's electoral court declares the result — Bolsonaro leads 50.7% to 49.3%, Times Brasil reported. The 1.4-point gap is inside the poll's margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, which makes the contest a technical tie.

Source: Reuters, Oct 24, 2026

In the spontaneous survey, where interviewers do not present the candidates' names, Bolsonaro also led numerically with 45.4% to Lula's 43.5%, Times Brasil reported. Blank or null votes accounted for 5.8% of total intentions and 2.9% of respondents were undecided. Asked who they expected to win regardless of their own vote, 51.6% of respondents said Bolsonaro would win, against 37.6% who expected a Lula victory. The poll found voters' choices largely settled: 92.7% said their choice was definitive, while 7.3% said they could still change their vote before Sunday.

Source: Times Brasil (CNBC), Oct 24, 2026

50.7%Flavio Bolsonaro — share of valid votes, CNT/MDA poll released Oct 24
49.3%Lula — share of valid votes, CNT/MDA poll released Oct 24
2.2 pointsmargin of error — the 1.4-point gap is inside it, a technical tie
2,032people surveyed from October 21 to 23 — Reuters

Compared with the previous CNT/MDA survey released on October 16, both candidates slipped slightly in total votes — Bolsonaro from 46.8% to 46.3% and Lula from 45.9% to 45% — while in valid votes the gap widened only marginally, from 50.5%–49.5% to 50.7%–49.3%, TMC reported. The poll was commissioned by the CNT, Brazil's national transport confederation, and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-02136/2026, with a 95% confidence level, TMC reported.

Source: TMC, Oct 24, 2026

Sunday's runoff follows the candidates' final televised debate on Friday and a first round in which Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula but without the absolute majority needed to win outright. About 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in the runoff, according to earlier reporting on the race. The winner will be declared once the electoral court completes the count on Sunday.

What is solid

  • The CNT/MDA figures reported independently by Reuters and Times Brasil agree: 46.3% to 45% in total votes and 50.7% to 49.3% in valid votes
  • The 1.4-point valid-vote gap is smaller than the poll's 2.2-point margin of error, so neither candidate can be declared ahead — both outlets describe a technical tie
  • The runoff vote itself takes place on Sunday, October 25

What is only claimed

  • Some Brazilian outlets put the survey sample at 2,002 respondents while Reuters reported 2,032 people surveyed from October 21 to 23; the vote-share figures are identical across reports
  • Who voters expect to win (51.6% Bolsonaro, 37.6% Lula, per Times Brasil) is a perception measure in the same poll, not a vote forecast