BRASILIA - Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has won re-election in Sunday's presidential runoff, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro to secure a fourth term, according to results from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). With 99.77% of electoral sections counted (498,112 of 499,248), Lula held 51.76% of valid votes - 64,078,503 votes - against 48.24% (59,728,246) for Bolsonaro, a lead of 4,350,257 votes, and the TSE results dashboard marked the election as mathematically decided in its update at 9:14 p.m. local time on Sunday. About 4.1 million ballots were cast as null or invalid, and valid votes counted totalled 123,806,749.
Source: TSE official results via Depor, Oct 25
The electoral authority declared the 80-year-old incumbent victorious, Al Jazeera English reported, describing a fourth non-consecutive term for Lula. Awaaz Punjab's earlier report on Sunday evening had the count at a dead heat - Lula 50.05% to Bolsonaro 49.95% at 48.97% of sections processed - before later-reporting regions widened Lula's lead steadily through the night.
Source: Al Jazeera English, Oct 25-26
What is solid
- The TSE count at 99.77% of sections gives Lula 51.76% (64,078,503 votes) to Bolsonaro's 48.24% (59,728,246), and the TSE dashboard marks the race mathematically decided (TSE via Depor)
- The result reverses the October 4 first round, which Bolsonaro led with about 47% to Lula's 45% (TSE figures via Depor and The Guardian)
What is only claimed
- The figures are still labelled preliminary until the TSE issues its formal declaration, and Bolsonaro's response to the result was still awaited when these reports were published (GuyanaUpdate/The Guardian)
A rare reversal, built in the Northeast
The result reverses the first round on October 4, when Bolsonaro finished ahead with 47.03% of valid votes (56,104,268) to Lula's 45.16% (53,876,617), defying most polls. According to The Guardian, no first-round runner-up has won a presidential runoff in Brazil since the return of democracy in 1985. Final pre-runoff surveys had shown a statistical tie, with several giving Bolsonaro a slight edge - Datafolha's final poll put Bolsonaro on 51% of valid votes to Lula's 49%, within its margin of error.
Source: The Guardian via GuyanaUpdate; TSE via Depor, Oct 25
The count swung through the evening: Bolsonaro led early as votes from the south, which lean right, were reported first, and Lula moved ahead as ballots from the Northeast, his stronghold, came in. He carried all nine Northeastern states, including Bahia and Pernambuco, where he took about 70% of the vote. Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who lost to Lula in 2022 and is serving a prison sentence for a failed coup attempt; Flavio Bolsonaro campaigned on a message of change. Lula's win keeps the Workers' Party in the presidency for another term. Awaaz Punjab will update this story when the TSE issues its formal declaration and Bolsonaro responds.