Brazil's presidential runoff is a dead heat heading into Sunday's vote, a Datafolha poll released on Thursday showed: Senator Flavio Bolsonaro would receive 47% of the vote compared with 46% for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Reuters reported from Sao Paulo.

Source: Reuters

The gap is well inside the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Datafolha surveyed 2,154 people between October 20 and 22. Five per cent of respondents said they would cast a blank vote and undecided voters made up 2%, the poll showed, Reuters said.

47%Flavio Bolsonaro — Datafolha, Oct 20-22
46%Lula — Datafolha, Oct 20-22
50-50split on valid votes alone, Particle reported
±2 pointsmargin of error; 2,154 people surveyed

Counting only valid votes — excluding blank and undecided responses — the two candidates are tied at 50% each, Particle reported in its summary of the same Datafolha release, adding that rejection rates are also nearly identical, at 46% for Flavio Bolsonaro and 45% for Lula. That leaves turnout, and the small pool of undecided and blank-vote voters, as the likely deciders on Sunday.

A first-round surprise, and a market already nervous

Last week's Datafolha poll had put the younger Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 45%, Reuters noted, and the senator surprisingly led Lula in the first-round vote earlier this month. Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Markets reflected the uncertainty on Thursday: Sao Paulo's Bovespa index closed 1.3% lower at 203,815 points, after touching a session low of 203,052, with election uncertainty and weak overseas markets weighing on shares, Reuters reported in market coverage summarised by Ad-hoc News. A close election poll had already pressured Brazilian equities in the previous session, it said.

In a separate election-week ruling, Brazil's electoral court (TSE) vice-president Andre Mendonca ruled that candidates may voluntarily disclose their own sealed banking, fiscal and telephone records, while stressing that voluntary disclosure does not replace formal investigations, Particle reported. Neither campaign's claim about the other's records is treated here as established — the ruling concerns what candidates may publish about themselves.

What is solid

  • Datafolha's final poll (2,154 people, Oct 20-22) puts Flavio Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 46%, inside a ±2-point margin of error — reported by Reuters.
  • On valid votes alone the race is tied 50-50, with rejection rates of 46% for Flavio and 45% for Lula, Particle reported from the same release.
  • The Bovespa index closed 1.3% lower at 203,815 on Thursday amid election uncertainty, Reuters market coverage said.

What is only claimed

  • Who will win Sunday's runoff — the poll is a statistical tie, so neither candidate's lead is established; campaign claims about sealed records and about the likely result are claims, not findings.