BRASILIA - Brazil's presidential runoff count was a dead heat late on Sunday, with the lead flipping between the two candidates as the official count by the electoral court, the TSE, passed the halfway mark in polling sections processed. With 48.97% of polling sections processed, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had 50.05% of valid votes (30,219,849 votes) against 49.95% (30,154,921 votes) for Senator Flavio Bolsonaro - a margin of just 64,928 votes, according to the TSE second-round results feed tracked by Votendi, last verified at 00:27 CET on Monday (7:27 p.m. EDT on Sunday). The figures are preliminary and may change; the share of sections processed is not the same as the share of votes counted.

Source: TSE official count via Votendi, Oct 25-26

The lead had already flipped once: at 46.48% of sections processed, Bolsonaro was narrowly ahead with 50.01% (28,658,071 votes) to Lula's 49.99% (28,645,130 votes), a margin of 12,941 votes. Earlier in the evening, with just over 5% of tallies reported, Lula was leading with around 51.16% versus Bolsonaro's 48.84%, Reuters reported - after an initial snapshot at 0.25% of sections had shown Lula on 57.66%. The swings show how much the picture can still move as larger and later-reporting areas are added.

Source: Reuters, Oct 25

A paused count, then a race on a knife-edge

Results began reporting on Sunday evening after a Supreme Court-mandated pause injected confusion into an already tight and tense runoff, Reuters reported. Justice Cristiano Zanin, who was formerly Lula's lawyer, accepted a request by Lula's campaign to extend voting, pointing to public transportation issues in three cities in the state of Bahia. His decision landed right around the 5 p.m. Brasilia time cutoff; in a subsequent ruling he said stations that had already closed would remain shut, while stations still open could keep receiving voters for an additional two hours. The ruling led the TSE to pause the count for two hours.

Source: Reuters, Oct 25

The unexpected extension injects uncertainty into a process still grappling with the fallout from 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat to Lula, his supporters later invaded government buildings, and Bolsonaro received a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup, Reuters noted. Two legal experts told Reuters the extension and the transport allegations could draw legal challenges. 'Depending on the election result, there is a possibility that the losing side might attempt to contest the outcome, arguing that many people were unable to vote even with the extended deadline,' said Vera Chemim, a constitutional lawyer in Sao Paulo. The senator's brother Eduardo Bolsonaro questioned the ruling on a live stream: 'Strange, isn't it? ... It doesn't inspire credibility.' Lula had asked to extend voting in at least nine states after his campaign alleged some officials reduced election-day transport; earlier on Sunday a court in Bahia ordered the arrest of a top transport official in Salvador over allegations he directed a reduction in the city's bus fleet. Flavio Bolsonaro had also asked for voting to be extended in at least three states, citing bad weather, Reuters reported.

Source: Reuters, Oct 25

What is at stake, and Washington watching

A victory for Bolsonaro, 45, would extend a wave of right-wing victories for Latin American candidates friendly to US President Donald Trump, while a fourth mandate for Lula would be a bulwark against Washington's influence in the region, Reuters reported. Reuters on Saturday revealed a campaign within Trump's State Department to help get the Bolsonaros back in power; Trump has so far declined to endorse a candidate. Asked on Sunday who he hoped would win, Trump declined to say: 'I don't want to get into that, but we are watching,' he told reporters in Washington. Counting continues, and Awaaz Punjab will update this story as the TSE count moves.

Source: Reuters, Oct 25