BRASILIA — More than 158.7 million Brazilians are eligible to vote on Sunday in a presidential runoff that gives South America's largest country a choice between a fourth term for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and a return of the Bolsonaro family to power through Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, The American Quorum reported.

Source: The American Quorum

Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasilia time, and the electoral court (TSE) will begin publishing the count after that. Brazil's electronic voting system is expected to produce a result within hours, the report said. Voting is mandatory for most adults, and voters who missed the first round may still take part on Sunday.

158.7 millioneligible voters (about 15.9 crore)
51%Flavio Bolsonaro, Datafolha valid votes
49%Lula, Datafolha valid votes
47.03%Bolsonaro's first-round valid vote share
21.08%of the electorate did not vote in round one

The contest remains genuinely uncertain. A final Datafolha poll put Bolsonaro at 51% of valid votes and Lula at 49%, but its two-point margin of error made that a statistical tie. Separate CNT/MDA, Quaest and Nexus surveys also showed Bolsonaro ahead by one to 1.3 percentage points, all within their margins of error, according to a Reuters review of the polls.

Source: Reuters via SRN News

The full Reuters poll roundup put CNT/MDA at 46.3% for Bolsonaro and 45.0% for Lula (2,032 people surveyed October 21-23, margin of error 2.2 points), Quaest at 46% to 45% (3,702 people, October 23-24) and AtlasIntel/Bloomberg at 49.9% to 48.4% (4,990 people, October 18-23), with BTG/Nexus at 47.0% to 46.0%.

Source: Reuters via The Business Standard

Bolsonaro entered the runoff with an advantage from the October 4 first round. Official TSE results gave him 56.1 million votes, or 47.03% of valid ballots, compared with Lula's 53.9 million, or 45.16%. Neither crossed the majority threshold, so the race went to a second round.

Turnout may decide it. Datafolha interviewed 4,050 voters in 124 municipalities on Friday and Saturday; 95% said their choice was firm, yet its turnout model showed a slightly wider Bolsonaro advantage among people most likely to vote. Datafolha found Bolsonaro strongest in the Southeast and South and among evangelical voters, while Lula led among lower-income voters, younger adults, Catholics and residents of the Northeast.

Both campaigns closed by mobilising supporters where turnout could shift the result: Lula marched with crowds in Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo, while Bolsonaro joined a motorcycle caravan in Belo Horizonte before campaigning in Rio, Reuters reported. Minas Gerais, where Bolsonaro led the first round by about five points, is especially important — no presidential candidate has won without carrying the state since Brazil returned to democracy in the 1980s, Reuters said.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term, campaigning on income support, tax and debt relief, labour protections and protection of the Amazon, while frustration over crime and living costs has eroded his approval. Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has campaigned on public security, large prisons and tougher treatment of criminal organisations. An AP analysis noted he faces an investigation involving alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion — allegations in an investigation, and he has not been convicted in that matter.

Sunday's voting also includes gubernatorial runoffs in five states and the Federal District, plus supplemental mayoral elections in seven municipalities, the election authority said. The presidential result will reset Brazil's approach to security, social spending, Amazon policy and its ties with the United States and the wider region.