The defence attaché at the Chinese embassy to the Philippines will attend the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus (ADMM-Plus) being held in Cebu this week, China's defence ministry said on Tuesday, in a syndicated report carried by DevDiscourse. The ministry said China will exchange views with other parties on upholding dialogue and enhancing mutual understanding and trust, and will reiterate its firm support for ASEAN centrality.

Source: Reuters via DevDiscourse

Aju Business Daily, reporting the same October 27 announcement made via social media, noted the ministry gave no specific reason for the defence minister's absence or for sending the attaché. China was represented at defence-minister level at the previous two ADMM-Plus meetings, and in 2023 sent a deputy chief of staff of the Central Military Commission at major-general rank, making a drop to attaché level unusual, Aju reported.

Source: Aju Business Daily

Analysts cited by Aju suggested the move is a deliberate downgrade reflecting strained China-Philippines relations, after repeated confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels around the Spratly Islands and Scarborough Shoal. China's foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Monday that the ADMM-Plus should play a positive role in regional dialogue, adding: "We firmly oppose any forces misusing public platforms for private ends, and hijacking ASEAN to stir up trouble," according to Philippine reporting of the briefing.

Other reporting offered a scheduling explanation. The South China Morning Post reported, via Philippine coverage, that the meetings coincide with the Communist Party's fifth plenum in Beijing, which runs from Monday to Thursday and which Defence Minister Dong Jun is expected to attend as a Central Committee member, and noted he also skipped the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in May for a second consecutive year. Beijing has not confirmed either explanation.

The 13th ADMM-Plus, on October 29 in Cebu, brings together the ASEAN member states and eight dialogue partners — Australia, China, India, Japan, New Zealand, Russia, South Korea and the United States. South Korea's Defence Minister Kang Shin-chul and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth are expected to attend in person, and the Philippines will hand the ADMM chairmanship to Singapore at the meeting. Aju also reported that China has resumed joint anti-terrorism exercises with Indonesia for the first time in 14 years.

What is solid

  • China's defence ministry announced on October 27 that its embassy defence attaché in Manila will represent China at the Cebu ADMM-Plus
  • The ministry gave no reason for the minister's absence
  • The 13th ADMM-Plus is held October 29 in Cebu, Philippines

What is only claimed

  • Whether the downgrade is a deliberate signal over South China Sea disputes with the Philippines, as analysts cited by Aju suggest
  • Whether scheduling — the Communist Party fifth plenum in Beijing this week, as the South China Morning Post reported — explains the minister's absence