BEIJING — China's factory activity expanded again in October, a private survey showed on Monday, offering a sharply different picture from the official data released on Saturday that Awaaz Punjab reported over the weekend. The RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, edged down to 52.0 in October from 52.1 in September, beating the 51.6 forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. A reading above 50 separates growth from contraction.
Source: Reuters, Nov 2
The contrast is the story. Saturday's official manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics slipped into contraction at 49.3, its fastest contraction in three months, with production and new orders both falling below 50. The private survey points the other way: it was the 11th straight month above 50, the longest run of improvement since mid-2021, and output grew at its fastest pace in six months, led by investment goods makers, according to analysis of the release by investingLive.
Source: investingLive, Nov 2
The two surveys measure different factory floors. The RatingDog poll covers around 650 manufacturers and leans more toward export-oriented firms, while the official survey samples more than 3,000 companies, investingLive noted — which helps explain why they can disagree about the same month.
Source: investingLive, Nov 2
Read the earlier official-data story here: China's factory activity shrinks again: official PMI falls to 49.3 in October
Orders still rising, but firms are cutting prices to win them
Total new orders rose solidly for a 17th straight month, though growth in export orders slowed to a three-month low, as makers of consumer and intermediate goods eased while investment goods producers accelerated, Reuters reported. Employment rose for a second straight month, but only marginally, and backlogs of work increased for a ninth month.
Source: Reuters, Nov 2
The catch was price. Output prices fell after rising in September, and export prices declined for the first time since November 2025, as intense competition forced firms to cut prices to support sales, while easing input costs also allowed for discounting, Reuters reported. Business confidence fell to a nine-month low on worries about input costs and competition, investingLive added.
Source: Reuters, Nov 2
Factories were still stocking up: purchasing activity grew at its fastest pace since February, and stocks of purchased goods rose at the strongest pace in five months, the survey showed. The mixed picture — export-facing factories busier than the official data suggest, but earning less on each order — lands on the same Monday that China's central bank and regulators were set to meet banks and funds on supporting a stock market that slid into a bear market in October, a meeting Awaaz Punjab reported on Sunday night.