Analysts cut their 2026 gold price forecast for a second straight quarter because of high Treasury yields, a strong US dollar and expectations that rates will stay high for longer, but still expect a recovery in 2027, a Reuters survey shows. The survey of 30 analysts and traders, conducted over the past three weeks, returned a median gold forecast of $4,495 per troy ounce for 2026, down from $4,509 estimated three months ago. The 2027 forecast is $4,650, compared to $4,610 in the previous poll, Reuters reported.
Source: Reuters poll, Oct 27, 2026, via Northland News Radio
Gold surged to a record $5,595 an ounce in January before tumbling to around $4,000 now, as the Iran war drove oil prices and Treasury yields higher, strengthened the dollar and reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion for investors, Reuters reported. “We expect prices to consolidate and recover in coming months as market focus shifts to de-dollarisation and currency debasement,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper, in comments reported by Reuters. A separate Reuters market report on Tuesday put the pressure in real time: spot gold dropped 0.4% to $4,000.52 per ounce by 1042 GMT, US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.6% to $4,014.40, and the dollar rose 0.3% against a basket of major currencies to a nearly two-week high, making dollar-priced gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Source: Reuters, Oct 27, 2026, via Kitco — Gold retreats on stronger dollar
Support, the poll found, should come from central banks and physical buyers. Bullion should remain supported by robust central bank purchases and physical demand, Reuters reported. “Absent a Black Swan (and here's hoping there aren't any more) prices are likely to be underpinned by steady improved physical demand from India and China,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell. Continuing purchases by central banks “are sending the markets a message about managing risk, which is more important than the physical tonnage,” she added. In the Tuesday market report, ActivTrades director and CEO Ricardo Evangelista said gold remains under pressure from a stronger dollar and elevated yields, as persistent inflation concerns, driven by high oil prices, reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive stance — and that a hawkish Fed message could push gold below $4,000, potentially towards $3,900, Reuters reported.
Source: Reuters poll, Oct 27, 2026, via Northland News Radio
Silver faces the same headwinds with an industrial twist. Analysts expect silver to average $66.75 per ounce in 2027, down from this year's forecast of $70.30, but up from the current price of $53, Reuters reported. Silver's dual role as both a precious and industrial metal has left it more exposed than gold to expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, with analysts citing weakening photovoltaic demand.
Source: Reuters poll, Oct 27, 2026, via Northland News Radio
Gold is the family savings metal across Punjab and the diaspora, and India is one of the two physical markets the analysts say will underpin prices. A forecast cut driven by the dollar and US rates — not by falling Indian demand — means the price families pay at home will keep tracking the Fed and the dollar more than local buying this year.