Gold regained the $4,000-an-ounce level on Monday, rising as much as 0.6% to $4,020.60 and closing at $4,016.97, after spot gold had fallen below $4,000 on Friday for the first time since mid-July and recorded a weekly drop of more than 4%, TradingKey reported.

Source: TradingKey

FXStreet likewise reported that gold traded at $4,020 after bouncing off a daily low of $3,978, saying speculation of a de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict pushed energy prices lower ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on 27-28 October.

Source: FXStreet

$4,016.97Spot gold's Monday close, after an intraday high of $4,020.60 (TradingKey) — yaani, per troy ounce, about 31 grams
Near $101 / near $114WTI crude / Brent crude prices in outside markets (Kitco)
4.99%Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield area (Kitco)

Kitco reported that Nymex WTI crude traded near $101 a barrel and Brent crude near $114, with the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield near 4.99%, and that the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are all expected to hold interest rates steady this week, although the outlook for further tightening remains an important influence on markets.

Source: Kitco

According to a Reuters survey cited by TradingKey, most economists expect the Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% this week, while expectations of another rate hike in December remain relatively high. FXStreet said money markets had priced in an 83% chance of a Fed rate rise at the December meeting, and that traders await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference for signals on the next move.

Source: TradingKey; FXStreet

"Gold will need to establish a floor, as higher oil prices keep inflation risks in focus and the potential for further rate tightening weighs on the metal," Suki Cooper, global head of commodities research at Standard Chartered, wrote in a note reported by Bloomberg via TradingView, adding that support would fade quickly if the metal does not find technical support at $3,886 an ounce.

Source: TradingView / Bloomberg

What is solid

  • Spot gold rose as much as 0.6% on Monday to $4,020.60 and closed at $4,016.97, reclaiming $4,000 after Friday's fall below it (TradingKey; FXStreet)
  • The Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan are all expected to hold rates steady this week (Kitco)

What is only claimed

  • Intraday oil snapshots differ by source and time of day — Kitco put WTI near $101 and Brent near $114, while FXStreet put WTI at $102.90 in its update; both are presented as reported, not as a single settled price