NEW YORK, November 3 — Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts, warning that the war between the United States and Iran and the continuing disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could keep crude prices far higher for far longer than markets had assumed. The bank raised the forecasts on Sunday because of elevated risks to Middle East supply, Reuters reported.

Source: Reuters via BOE Report

For December 2026, Goldman now expects Brent crude to reach $105 a barrel, up from its previous forecast of $90 — a rise of nearly 17 percent in the forecast itself (yaani, the bank now expects a barrel of Brent to cost about $15 more than it predicted earlier; at roughly ₹94.66 to the dollar, $105 is about ₹9,940 a barrel). Its forecast for US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rises to $94 a barrel from $81.

For 2027, the bank raised its average Brent forecast to $88 a barrel from $80, and its average WTI forecast to $78 from $73. The forecasts were set out in a note by analysts led by Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, who built an allowance for a potential global supply disruption of one million barrels a day into the bank's 2027 base case — a sign of how seriously the bank now treats the risk that the Gulf crisis interrupts still more supply.

The starkest number is the upside scenario. Goldman said Brent could reach $140 a barrel and average around $130 across 2027 if average Gulf oil output in 2027 remains 3.5 million barrels a day below its 2025 average (at roughly ₹94.66 to the dollar, $140 is about ₹13,250 a barrel). 'Intensified shipping attacks, damage to oil infrastructure, and a more persistent risk premium remain the key triggers of potential upside,' the bank said in its note. The bank stressed that this is a conditional scenario, not its main forecast.

The note also maps the other direction. A faster recovery in Middle East production combined with a lasting diplomatic settlement between Washington and Tehran could push Brent down into the $60-a-barrel range, the bank said — which is why the Qatar-mediated talks and US President Donald Trump's post-midterm decision on Iran matter so directly to fuel prices worldwide.

Why the bank moved now

The US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28, 2026, and has sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that before the war carried about a fifth of the world's crude oil and natural gas. Brent ended October at its highest level in six months on concern the conflict could escalate again after Tuesday's US midterm elections. This week alone, oil first plunged on hopes raised by the Qatar-mediated talks and then edged back up early on Tuesday — Brent rose 0.5 percent to $105.25 a barrel in early Asian trade, Reuters reported — after the Wall Street Journal reported that US forces had struck Iran's Qeshm Island in the strait.

Goldman is not alone in marking prices up. Morgan Stanley has raised its fourth-quarter forecast for Dated Brent to $105 a barrel, and ANZ has raised its year-end Brent futures forecast to the same $105 level, as banks conclude that markets will keep pricing in a higher risk premium while a lasting diplomatic breakthrough looks difficult to achieve.

The Qeshm Island strike report that lifted oil prices early on Tuesday is covered in full here: Oil rises after US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island

What it means for Gulf workers and for India

The Gulf is home to lakhs of Punjabi and Indian workers, and sustained crude prices above $100 feed directly into diesel, petrol, airfares and the cost of everything shipped to and from the region. The warning follows a stark assessment on Monday from Abu Dhabi's state oil chief: Sultan Al Jaber of ADNOC told the ADIPEC conference that the world has drawn nearly one billion barrels from global inventories since Hormuz shipping was disrupted, that diesel stocks in some regions are at their lowest seasonal levels in 35 years, and that shipping and logistics now account for over 30 percent of the cost of a barrel, up from under 5 percent before the war.

ADNOC's warning that the world has 'eroded its supply buffers' is reported here: ADNOC chief warns global energy buffers have eroded

What happens next turns on decisions due within days. Americans vote in the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3; Trump has said he is in no rush to decide on resuming major strikes on Iran and that a deal 'could happen', while Qatari mediators continue to shuttle a draft proposal between Tehran and Washington. If those talks produce a Hormuz reopening, Goldman's own note says the risk premium — and prices — can fall fast. If they collapse and Gulf output stays millions of barrels a day below normal, the bank's $140 scenario is the map of where prices go instead.