The next shock from the Hormuz crisis may land on dinner plates, not fuel pumps. In the first major report from the S&P Global Institute, published October 19, authors Daniel Yergin, Shankari Srinivasan, Allan Pickett and Simon Blakey warn that higher energy and fertiliser costs, resilient biofuel-linked demand and El Niño weather risk are combining into what could become a global food crisis. "The world's food producers rely on a steady supply of natural gas and sulfur for fertilizer, diesel for machinery and transport, and open sea-lanes for trade," they write. "Conflict is now testing all of them at once, just as El Niño tests the harvest."

The chokepoint numbers are the core of the warning. While about 20% of global oil and LNG trade flowed through Hormuz before the war, the report notes what is less recognised: roughly 29% of global trade in urea — the world's most widely used nitrogen fertiliser — normally passes through the strait, as does nearly half of the global seaborne sulfur trade and about 21% of the merchant trade in ammonia. The diesel squeeze compounds it: the crude-to-diesel spread, historically $12 to $20 a barrel, topped $100 in early September, the authors said.

South Asia sits in the blast radius. Gulf producers supply much of India's imported urea, while LNG underpins about 85% of India's domestic urea output; in Bangladesh, four of five urea plants have stopped since March 2026 for lack of LNG, according to the report's summary. Faced with both input costs at once, farmers in exposed regions will either cut fertiliser application or plant less, the authors warn — and because farmers buy inputs months before selling a crop, the effect on food prices may lag until 2027. S&P Global has already trimmed its Brazil corn forecast by 6 million tonnes (yaani 60 lakh tonnes) to 137 million tonnes, and soybeans by 6 million tonnes to 177 million tonnes, with a probability-weighted soybean estimate of 168 million tonnes once El Niño and reduced phosphate use are counted.

Other trackers point the same way: diammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser prices rose 28.4% in the first nine months of 2026, from $625 a tonne at the end of 2025 to $802.5 a tonne, according to market data reported by Anadolu and summarised by UkrAgroConsult, while corn prices rose 13.3% and soybeans 22.6% over the same period. The report also notes that a UN mechanism to move fertiliser ships through Hormuz still awaits US and Iranian approval. This is an analysis and a warning, not a declared crisis — but for Punjab's farmers, who buy urea and DAP in a market priced off Gulf supply, the report explains why a strait thousands of kilometres away can decide next season's input bill. Sources: S&P Global Institute report via PR Newswire / Morningstar — "Out of Hormuz Energy Shocks, the Ingredients for a Global Food Crisis" (Oct 19, 2026); Fertilizer Daily summary of the report (Oct 20, 2026); UkrAgroConsult, citing Anadolu market data (Oct 2026).