The Middle East conflict has tightened energy markets so much that crude oil, fuel and natural gas prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels in 2027, International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director Fatih Birol said on Monday at the Singapore International Energy Week conference, as carried by Reuters. 'I am afraid I don't see any credible pathway that the markets will go next year, where we were before this war has started,' Birol said.

Source: Reuters via OilPrice.com

Birol said oil prices are flirting with $120 a barrel and product prices are even higher, and that crude at almost $120 is having a major impact on the trade deficits of many countries, even if for some European countries that level may be affordable. Following further Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, Brent crude futures reached $117 a barrel, a peak not seen for nearly six months, and the contract remained about 59% above its pre-war level, Bursa reported from the same conference.

Source: Reuters via OilPrice.com; Bursa

$117Brent peak this week, highest in nearly six months
59%Brent above its pre-war level
90 GWNuclear capacity under construction, highest in four decades

The crunch in diesel and gasoil markets is set to extend into the middle of next year, the IEA said in its October Oil Market Report, and Birol highlighted concern over winter demand for refined fuels, particularly diesel used for heating in parts of the West, as several refineries undergo maintenance. He also expects significant pressure on European gas markets as countries reduce Russian imports while Qatar and the Emirates face war-related limits on their gas exports, Bursa reported.

Source: Bursa; Reuters via OilPrice.com

Birol called on governments and companies to make energy security their top priority, saying trust is the scarcest commodity in energy markets today, and said the current crisis will result in an acceleration of the 'Age of electricity' and of nuclear power expansion. Citing a recent IEA survey, he said nuclear plants totalling 90 gigawatts were being built, the highest level in four decades.

Source: Reuters via OilPrice.com; AM Business

What is solid

  • IEA executive director Fatih Birol said on Monday, 26 October, at Singapore International Energy Week that he sees no credible pathway for energy markets in 2027 to return to pre-war conditions (Reuters via OilPrice.com; Bursa; AM Business)
  • Brent reached $117 a barrel this week, its highest in nearly six months, and stayed about 59% above its pre-war level (Bursa)
  • Birol cited 90 gigawatts of nuclear capacity under construction, the highest in four decades, and urged energy security as the top priority (Reuters via OilPrice.com; Bursa)

What is only claimed

  • Birol declined to predict oil prices themselves — his warning is about market conditions and tightness lasting into 2027, not a forecast that Brent will stay at any specific price