LONDON — The Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carried about a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas before the war, is still not safe to cross. Arsenio Dominguez, Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the United Nations' shipping agency, said at a question-and-answer session at IMO headquarters in London on Monday that he had received no confirmation that the strait's designated shipping lanes had been cleared of mines, Xinhua reported. "There's no confirmation that there are no mines in the region. So I cannot guarantee that it's safe," Dominguez said. "That's why we're not recommending anyone to go through the Strait of Hormuz."

Source: Xinhua via BizzBuzz

Dominguez said the IMO-established traffic separation scheme — the designated two-way corridor through the strait, in place since 1968 — is currently not in operation. Ships that still cross are using alternative routes the IMO has not adopted: to the north through Iranian waters under Iranian control, or to the south near the Omani coast with US naval escorts. Because the agency has not approved those arrangements, it cannot guarantee safe passage on them either, he said. He added that vessels had also been hit by unidentified projectiles, and that in an active war zone it is often impossible to establish whether an incident involved a mine, a drone or a missile.

Source: Xinhua via StockBiz

Two accounts, no verification: Iran's mines and America's "clear" lanes

The IMO chief's warning sits between two flatly conflicting accounts. Iran has repeatedly claimed that vessels struck mines after entering what it calls "unauthorised" routes, and its Revolutionary Guard has reported tanker mine strikes in the strait in recent days. US Central Command has denied those accounts: its commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, has said US forces cleared Iranian mines from the strait's internationally recognised primary transit routes and would stay to keep them open. Dominguez said the IMO has received no independent confirmation of either side's version — and that, he said, is exactly why the advisory against transiting stands.

Source: Xinhua via BizzBuzz

Awaaz Punjab reported Admiral Cooper's mines-clear claim when Central Command made it — the IMO now says it cannot verify that claim, which is why the two accounts have to be read side by side. Read: CENTCOM says Hormuz routes clear of mines

The true toll may be higher than the IMO's count. Reporting from the IMO's annual council meeting, where Dominguez spoke on Monday, said official records likely understate the danger because many targeted vessels never report incidents — unregistered ships, vessels sailing under deceptive flags and tankers that switch off their tracking transponders often conceal damage, and authorities sometimes learn of an attack only when a coastal state is called out on a rescue. Dominguez also said the IMO firmly opposes an Iranian initiative to impose mandatory transit tolls in the strait.

Source: The National via Real News Hub

Background: a war at the chokepoint since February 28

The United States and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, and traffic through Hormuz — about a fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supplies in peacetime — has since fallen to a fraction of normal levels, with most Gulf exports shut in or rerouted at heavy cost. The IMO said it is coordinating with regional countries, the International Transport Workers' Federation and other stakeholders to provide the stranded crews with supplies, medical care, mental-health support and help communicating with their families — a situation of direct concern in the Gulf, where large numbers of Indian seafarers crew the world's merchant fleets and lakhs of Punjabi and Indian workers live and work in the Gulf states whose ports and oil income depend on the strait.

Source: Xinhua via BizzBuzz

The warning came on the same day US officials described limited, defensive US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, at the mouth of the strait, after an Iranian surface-to-air missile was fired at a US aircraft — the latest exchange in a campaign Washington has kept largely unpublicised. Read: US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz

Oil markets swung on the same conflicting signals. Brent crude settled at $104.77 a barrel on Monday, down $8.66 or 7.63 percent, as talks between Iranian and Qatari mediators lifted hopes of a settlement — yaani a fall of more than eight and a half dollars in a single session. By early Tuesday, after the Qeshm strike reports, Brent had edged back up to about $104.80 to $105.25 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate to about $96.66 to $96.93, Reuters reported. President Donald Trump said on Monday that he was not considering new strikes on Iran after Tuesday's US midterm elections and that a deal with Tehran "could happen" — but the IMO's assessment underlines that, whatever diplomacy does, the physical waterway remains closed in practice until mine clearance is independently verified.

Source: Reuters via KWSN

What happens next

For shipping to return to normal, three things would have to happen: an end or pause in the fighting durable enough for survey and clearance work, an independent verification that the IMO's designated lanes are mine-free, and insurers willing to cover the crossing again. None is in place. Until then, the IMO's position is unchanged — do not transit — and the roughly 12 ships a day that still attempt the passage do so on routes no international body has certified, while 6,000 stranded seafarers wait in the Gulf for a war being decided in Washington, Tehran and Doha.