Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday (October 25) that a potential resumption of war with Israel and the United States would not change his country's positions, The Hindu reported.

Source: The Hindu, Oct 25

"Recently, there has been talk of a new war, but I am already thinking about the post-war period. Whether there is war or not, our policies remain the same," Araghchi said during a televised event in Tehran, according to The Hindu. "They have already done so twice and have seen the results. If they want to try again, they know they will achieve no different outcome from those of the past," he added.

Remarks as Trump again raises another campaign

The remarks come amid mounting US and Israeli threats of renewed attacks on Iran, as President Donald Trump said on Friday (October 23) that Washington "may do another little Epic Fury," referring to the US-Israeli campaign on Iran that began on February 28, The Hindu reported. ANI, citing Iran's ISNA news agency, reported that Araghchi made similar remarks at the opening of the Martyr Seyyed Kamal Kharrazi Documentation Center and Museum in Tehran, warning that any further military action against Tehran would be irrational: "If there is any rationality, they will not try military action against Iran again."

Source: ANI via Indian Economic Observer, Oct 25

An April 8 ceasefire between Iran and the United States put an end to the most intense fighting, apart from sporadic exchanges of fire in and around the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy supplies, The Hindu reported. In June, Iran agreed with the United States to a memorandum of understanding laying out a pathway to a permanent settlement, only for the deal to later unravel as each side accused the other of violating it. Tehran has since called for a return to the accord.

Feb 28Start of the US-Israeli 'Epic Fury' campaign on Iran, as reported by The Hindu
Apr 8Ceasefire that ended the most intense US-Iran fighting
JuneUS-Iran memorandum on a path to a permanent settlement — later unravelled, both sides said

"Hormuz will no longer be the same"

"The current war has changed everything. We must accept that new realities are taking hold. Shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz will no longer be the same, and the management of the strait will no longer be the same," Araghchi said, according to The Hindu. "To achieve peace and stability, our region must move towards the complete absence of foreign forces," he added.

Iran has claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the war and has regularly targeted vessels that attempt crossing without its authorisation — moves strongly opposed by Washington and countries in the region — while the US has been maintaining a naval counter-blockade on Iranian ports, The Hindu reported.

What is solid

  • Araghchi said on Sunday that a resumed war would not change Iran's positions and that he is thinking about the post-war period (The Hindu; ANI/ISNA)
  • Trump said on Friday that Washington may carry out another 'Epic Fury' campaign against Iran (The Hindu)
  • An April 8 ceasefire ended the most intense fighting, and a June US-Iran memorandum later unravelled with each side accusing the other of violations (The Hindu)

What is only claimed

  • Araghchi's claim, reported by ANI via ISNA, that Iranian forces destroyed more than 80 American aircraft and that nearly all US bases in the region were obliterated — this is the minister's claim; neither report carried independent verification of it
  • Who controls the Strait of Hormuz: Iran claims control and targets unauthorised crossings; Washington and regional states oppose that claim and the US maintains a naval counter-blockade (The Hindu)

ANI reported that Araghchi called the conflict — which he termed the Ramadan War — a turning point in the region's history in which all security structures have been upended, and said the end of the war must be across all fronts.

Source: ANI via Indian Economic Observer, Oct 25

Why it matters for the Gulf and Punjab

Hormuz is the route for a large share of the Gulf's oil and gas exports. Any return to open US-Iran fighting, or a permanent change in how the strait is managed, affects oil prices, Gulf airports and shipping — and the jobs, flights and remittances of lakhs of Punjabi and Indian workers in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and other Gulf states.