Iran's fleet of shadow tankers in Asian waters has run out of oil to sell, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing analysts at ship-tracking firm Kpler — the floating crude stockpile that kept cash flowing to Tehran through most of the war has been fully depleted by mid-October because the US naval blockade stopped Iran from replacing the crude it normally sells to Chinese refineries.
"There's no more oil to discharge to China anymore," said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude-oil analysis at Kpler, according to the Journal. When the war began in February, Iran had around 135 million barrels stored overseas — yaani about 13.5 crore barrels, likely worth $10 billion or more after oil prices surged. After the US first imposed a blockade in April, stocks fell below 50 million barrels by mid-June, when Washington lifted the blockade during a ceasefire deal; Tehran then rushed out more oil and rebuilt the pile to a peak of nearly 90 million barrels — yaani 9 crore barrels — before the deal collapsed in mid-July and the blockade was reimposed, the Journal reported via InvestingLive. By October 5 the reserves had fallen below 1 million barrels, and OilPrice, also citing the Journal and Kpler, put the mid-October figure at 866,000 barrels.
US Central Command said on Saturday that the blockade has denied Tehran at least $25 billion worth of oil revenue — yaani $25 billion is 25 arab dollars, or $2,500 crore — which it said would constrict Iran's ability to replace destroyed factories and weapons, the Journal reported. US actions had "imposed devastating costs on Iran's security apparatus," Central Command head Admiral Brad Cooper said — a US claim about the blockade's effect. Oil sales account for about 30% to 40% of Iranian government revenue and are its largest source of foreign exchange.
Iran has pushed back on the picture of an economy near collapse: the governor of Iran's central bank said the Iranian economy had demonstrated "very good resilience" and that claims it was collapsing were "nothing more than an illusion," OilPrice reported, citing the Journal. The drop in oil revenue is still a further blow to an economy already facing runaway inflation and widespread shortages, the Journal said, while Chinese refiners are increasingly turning to alternative suppliers including Brazil and West Africa, and non-Iranian oil exports from the Gulf have recently exceeded prewar levels under US protection through the Strait of Hormuz.
What is solid
- Kpler analysts told the Wall Street Journal that Iran's floating crude reserves in Asian waters were fully depleted by mid-October, after falling below 1 million barrels by October 5.
- Oil sales provide about 30% to 40% of Iranian government revenue and are its largest source of foreign exchange, according to the Journal's reporting.
What is only claimed
- US Central Command's figure of at least $25 billion in denied oil revenue is a US military claim; Iran's central bank governor has dismissed claims that the economy is collapsing as an illusion.
- Tracker estimates differ slightly on the final stock: OilPrice put mid-October floating storage at 866,000 barrels, while InvestingLive noted another tracker estimated about 6 million barrels off Singapore as of October 9.
