JERUSALEM - Israelis vote on Tuesday, October 27, for the 26th Knesset - the country's sixth election since 2019 - with the campaign's final opinion polls projecting continued deadlock. The three surveys published on Friday evening, just before a blackout on publishing polls took effect on Saturday, all showed the opposition 'change bloc' ahead of the parties loyal to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but neither bloc anywhere near the 61 seats required for a majority, The Times of Israel reported, in coverage carried by ANI.
Source: ANI via Desi Talk Chicago, Oct 24 - reporting The Times of Israel
Haaretz's summary of the three surveys found Eisenkot's bloc leading Netanyahu's governing coalition by two to six seats, with none of the polls projecting either bloc winning 61. In the Channel 13 survey, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar was projected to emerge as the largest party with 22 seats, ahead of Netanyahu's Likud on 19, followed by Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad on 14 and the left-wing Democrats on 10. The Joint List was forecast at nine seats, while Yisrael Beytenu, Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism were each projected at eight, and Shas and Ra'am at seven each, according to The Times of Israel's account of the poll.
The same surveys forecast that several smaller parties would fail to cross the electoral threshold - in the Channel 13 poll, the parties led by Yoaz Hendel, Ofer Winter and Moti Leitner were all projected to fall short of entering the Knesset - which narrows the coalition options further and makes the votes of small parties near the threshold decisive on the night. No new polls may be published from Saturday until exit polls are released when voting stations close on Tuesday at 10 p.m., The Times of Israel reported.
Source: ANI via Desi Talk Chicago, Oct 24 - reporting The Times of Israel
What is solid
- All three final surveys (Channel 13, Channel 12, Kan) put the change bloc ahead of Netanyahu's bloc - 54-50, 56-50 and 52-50 - with Arab parties on 14-16 seats (Times of Israel via ANI; Haaretz summary)
- No final poll projects either bloc reaching the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority
- Eisenkot's Yashar is projected as the largest single party in two of the three surveys, ahead of Likud (Times of Israel)
- A blackout on publishing new polls runs from Saturday until exit polls at the close of voting on Tuesday at 10 p.m.
What is only claimed
- These are opinion polls, not results - the gaps between the blocs (two to six seats) are within the range that late shifts and threshold effects can overturn on the night
- Whether the Arab parties (14-16 projected seats) would support either bloc, and whether small parties near the threshold survive, will decide the final arithmetic - neither is settled by the surveys
What a deadlock would mean
Under Israeli law, if no coalition can assemble a majority after the vote, Netanyahu would stay on as caretaker prime minister until a government can be formed or new elections are called - an outcome Israeli analysts say the final polls make plausible. The campaign's closing days were also shaped from outside Israel: US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Netanyahu for re-election, while Netanyahu warned that Iran or its allies might try to disrupt the vote - claims Tehran has not been shown to have acted on.
Source: Global 1 News, Oct 24; Awaaz Punjab coverage of Trump's endorsement and Netanyahu's warning, Oct 25
The two men leading the rival blocs agree on more than their rivalry suggests - both Netanyahu and Eisenkot oppose a Palestinian state, a Reuters explainer found last week. Read: Netanyahu and Eisenkot both oppose a Palestinian state