Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a fight for political survival in Israel's election on Tuesday, with voters weighing his leadership after the 2023 Hamas-led attacks, wars in Gaza and with Iran, and Israel's deepening international isolation, Reuters reported from Jerusalem. Yet Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader with 19 years in office, remains a formidable survivor, with nationalist politics increasingly entrenched and Israel's fragmented system potentially leaving him best placed to form a government. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. (0500 to 2000 GMT).

Source: Reuters via BusinessWorld

Opinion polls show a close race between Netanyahu's Likud party and its right-wing allies and a rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff. The final three television polls published on October 23 — by Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13 — each put Netanyahu's bloc on 50 seats, 11 short of the 61 needed to govern, with the opposition on 52, 56 and 54, according to a summary of the final polls. Netanyahu is campaigning on his wartime leadership and his alliance with US President Donald Trump, who has endorsed him and joined Israel in waging war on Iran. Netanyahu said on Sunday that Trump was prepared to act again to "finally" remove the Iranian threat, but only if Netanyahu remained in power — a claim Eisenkot answered by accusing Netanyahu of "relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies and threats" and saying he was confident Trump would work "in full cooperation with any leader chosen by the people."

Source: Reuters via BusinessWorld; final TV polls via The Indeks

The election follows one of Israel's most turbulent periods since its establishment in 1948, shaped by the trauma of the October 7, 2023 attacks, Israel's subsequent military assault in Gaza and deep domestic divisions over the policies of Netanyahu's right-wing government. For many of Netanyahu's opponents, the election turns on accountability for the security failures of October 7, Israel's deadliest day, when Hamas-led militants killed 1,200 people and took another 251 hostage, Reuters reported. Gaza health authorities say Israeli attacks killed 74,000 people in the enclave. Supporters such as 18-year-old Likud voter Nof Gabay rejected the idea Netanyahu was to blame for October 7 and called him "the right man for the state of Israel," while Eisenkot supporter Mali Hajaj told Reuters "the most important thing is the establishment of a national inquiry because that's where our healing will come from."

Source: Reuters via BusinessWorld

Netanyahu may again depend on far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich to form a government. Both have faced sanctions from some Western countries that accuse them of inciting violence against Palestinians, while Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party has gained support in opinion polls, Reuters reported. Eisenkot has criticised Jewish settler violence against Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which has surged since 2023, and opposes Netanyahu's far-right coalition partners. A high turnout among voters from Israel's Arab minority could help nudge the coalition arithmetic in Eisenkot's favour, although he has ruled out partnering with Arab parties; analysts see a scenario where they prop up a minority government he leads in order to ensure Netanyahu is removed. "My expectation is that we will have only a slight majority either way. No landslide," Israeli political analyst Amotz Asa-El of the Shalom Hartman Institute told Reuters. If neither bloc can form a governing coalition in the 120-seat parliament, Netanyahu could stay on as caretaker until another election is held next year.

Source: Reuters via BusinessWorld