Japan is months away from running out of yttrium, a critical rare earth it cannot easily replace, according to a Financial Times report published on October 20 and summarised by several business outlets. Yttrium is a heat-resistant metal used to coat jet-engine turbines, in car manufacturing, and in the plasma-etching chambers used to make semiconductors. Japanese government officials and trading-house executives told the FT that shortages could emerge as early as the end of this year unless China eases its export controls or allies find substitutes or extra stockpiles.

The numbers show how hard the squeeze is. Chinese customs data cited in the coverage show China exported just 14.1 tonnes of yttrium oxide to Japan in January–May 2026, down 97.7% from 605.3 tonnes a year earlier, and shipments of yttrium, dysprosium and terbium to Japan were recorded at zero in June. Argus price data cited by the FT put yttrium oxide at about $9 a kilogram inside China against about $1,150 a kilogram outside it — yaani, the same kilo that costs $9 inside China costs about $1,150 in the open market outside, a gap the FT-linked coverage describes as a 179-fold rise in the outside price in two years.

"Stockpiles are decreasing and rare earth saving efforts have a limit. The timeline is not years, it's months and how to survive next year," one Japanese official told the FT, warning that if the problem is ignored it becomes "a systemic risk to the world economy". A senior US official said China is now letting Japan buy only "the bare minimum it needs", while meeting about two-thirds of its rare-earth commitments to the United States. Tokyo has asked the US government and major American companies to help persuade Beijing to loosen the restrictions, and a US–Japan critical-minerals "rapid response group" met in Washington last month, according to the reports.

The politics behind the squeeze are stated plainly in the coverage: Beijing tightened rare-earth exports to Japan after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said last year that a conflict over Taiwan could pose an existential threat to Japan. The risk does not stop at Japan's borders — US defence supply chains rely on Japanese-made components that contain yttrium, and US officials have linked the shortage to delays elsewhere, including jet-engine supplies. For balance: Japan's economy ministry and the US Treasury declined to comment specifically on yttrium, and China's embassy did not respond to the FT's requests, according to summaries of the report. No new Chinese announcement easing the controls had been reported by Wednesday morning. Sources: Financial Times reporting (Oct 20, 2026) as summarised by European Business Magazine, The Oregon Group, Mining.com.au and Dealroom (all Oct 20–21, 2026).