Russia's oil refineries have sharply raised output in the second half of October after a halt in Ukrainian drone attacks allowed damaged units to come back online, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Three people familiar with the figures estimated that crude processing climbed to around 5 million barrels per day — roughly 25% higher than at the start of October.
Source: Reuters
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that refineries were swiftly bringing units back online because almost all of the oil and gas equipment they need is manufactured inside Russia, Reuters reported. There have been no reported strikes on Russian oil processing plants since October 16, and Bloomberg's tanker tracking likewise noted no refinery attacks in the seven days to October 25.
Source: Bloomberg
Diesel has led the recovery. The same sources estimated that refineries raised diesel production by at least 50,000 metric tons a day in October, reaching about 225,000 tons a day, with roughly 80,000 tons a day available for export after diesel exports were partially reopened under the arrangement with the United States, Reuters reported.
The rebound follows months of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining. Ukraine's defence ministry said earlier this month that the strikes had knocked out about half of Russia's refining capacity — a figure it acknowledged could not be independently verified. Moscow had restricted diesel exports for months to protect its domestic market while plants were repaired.
The processing surge is already reshaping Russia's crude exports. Bloomberg reported that overseas crude shipments edged down to 3.55 million barrels a day in the four weeks to October 25 — the lowest in five weeks — as more crude was diverted into domestic refineries instead of being shipped abroad. Bloomberg also reported that some buyers in India may be turning away from Russian barrels amid high shipping costs and cheaper alternatives from the Gulf.
Source: Bloomberg
Russia is one of the world's largest diesel exporters. A sustained recovery in its refining would add fuel supply back to world markets at a time when crude prices have stayed above $100 a barrel during the Middle East conflict — while any return of drone strikes could reverse the gains within days.
US President Donald Trump declared an energy ceasefire earlier in October, and reporting since then has described a pause in attacks on energy infrastructure on both sides, though Kyiv has accused Moscow of not fully honouring it. Whether the refinery recovery holds will depend on whether that pause survives.