BELGRADE - Aleksandar Vucic conceded defeat on Sunday night in Serbia's snap parliamentary election, announcing at the headquarters of his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) that the student-backed opposition list had won. 'I want to inform you that, based on a stratified sample, it is clear that we have lost these elections,' Vucic said, according to Blic reporting carried by Votendi. 'The student-led protest list has won. They will have between 135 and 140 seats in parliament, while we will have around 105,' he added, in remarks also reported by The Pavlovic Today.

Source: Blic via Votendi / The Pavlovic Today, Oct 25

The Pavlovic Today reported that Vucic estimated his SNS would secure 105 to 106 seats in the 250-seat parliament, putting his party in opposition after 14 years in power. A parliamentary majority requires 126 seats, so the projected Students' List total of 135 to 140 would clear it comfortably - if the projection holds in the official count.

Source: The Pavlovic Today, Oct 25

135-140 seatsStudents' List projected total in the 250-seat National Assembly, per Vucic's own stratified sample
52.0% / 138 seatsIpsos/CeSID projection cited in Guardian election-night coverage for the Students' List, vs 39.3% / 104 seats for Vucic's list
105-106 seatsVucic's estimate for his own SNS-backed list
6,451,292Registered voters eligible in the election, across 8,392 polling stations

An independent Ipsos/CeSID projection cited in the Guardian's election-night coverage pointed the same way, putting the Students' List on 52.0% of the vote and 138 seats, with Vucic's list on 39.3% and 104 seats, Votendi reported. These are estimates, not a certified result from Serbia's Republic Electoral Commission (RIK).

Source: Ipsos/CeSID via Guardian, cited by Votendi, Oct 25

What is solid

  • Vucic publicly conceded defeat on Sunday night, basing his statement on a stratified sample rather than a completed official count
  • Both Vucic's estimate and the Ipsos/CeSID projection put the Students' List ahead with a projected majority above the 126-seat threshold
  • Serbia's state election commission is not expected to release the official tally before Monday, according to AP

What is only claimed

  • The earliest RIK snapshot (21:15 Belgrade time, only 2.42% of polling stations processed) showed Vucic's list ahead on 54.21% against 36.85% - an early partial tally that is not directly comparable with the sample-based seat projections
  • The projected seat totals (135-140 for the Students' List) are estimates; the official count may change them as counting progresses

An election born in the streets

The vote capped nearly two years of student-led protests that began after a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, killing 16 people, Reuters reported. The disaster set off a wave of youth protests demanding accountability, amid widespread accusations of high-level corruption and cronyism - allegations about responsibility for particular acts still have to be established through legal process. The Students' List, led by cardiologist Ilija Srdanovic, fielded 250 largely unknown candidates including university professors, actors and farmers, Reuters reported.

Source: Reuters via Kelo FM, Oct 25

Vucic had said earlier on Sunday, after casting his own vote, that Serbia would choose its direction that day: 'If we lose we will acknowledge the will of the electorate, if we win no one will take it (from us),' Reuters reported. Voting ran from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time, and counting began after polls closed. What happens next - government formation talks and the reaction on the streets - will depend on the official RIK results expected from Monday.

Source: Reuters via Kelo FM / AP via Reflector, Oct 25