Across Sudan, farmers who have struggled to harvest their crops since a civil war flared in 2023 are now battling a new enemy that could plunge the nation back into famine: the weather, Reuters reported on Friday from North Kordofan. El Niño, the climate pattern threatening parts of Africa with floods, is bringing higher temperatures and drought to Sudan, where pockets of famine have already emerged during more than three years of conflict, mainly in areas under siege.

Source: Reuters via WDSM

"The risk of famine is growing in many conflict-affected areas of Sudan, with the impact of El Niño-induced drought compounding already dire conditions," the United Nations-backed global hunger monitor, the IPC, wrote in an October 12 alert, Reuters reported.

Source: Reuters via 98.5 The River

Rainfall in July to September, the peak rainy season, was the lowest in more than three decades across the country, United States Geological Survey (USGS) data shows. In North Darfur state in the west, it was the lowest since 1984 — the same year a famine devastated Sudan and Ethiopia. In North Kordofan state in the central region, it was the lowest since 1990, while in Gedaref state in the southeast it was the lowest since 1991.

In June, the IPC said 5.1 million people in Sudan faced severe hunger, and it is currently updating the numbers. The UN World Food Programme forecasts an additional 350,000 people will experience severe hunger by the end of 2026, rising to 1.2 million more by August 2027, the WFP head of programme for Sudan, Samuel Clendon, told Reuters in October, citing figures shared with donors. The worst-hit areas are Darfur and the Kordofan region, the WFP said.

On the ground, farmers described crops shrivelled in dry, sandy soil. "This year is terrible," said Mariam Omar on her smallholding near the town of Um Ruwaba in North Kordofan. In Gedaref state — crucial to Sudan's food supply during the war because it escaped the fighting — large-scale farmer Emad Kabsoor, who runs farms covering 14,700 hectares, said: "Even if we get rain going forward, I'll only have about 25% of last year's crop. We've never had a season like this." In the livestock market of El Obeid, North Kordofan's capital, trader Sirajaldeen Abdellateef said: "Usually at this time the cattle are fat and everyone is making a profit. But now, with this autumn's scarcity, the cattle became skinny."

Aid money is shrinking at the same time. As of October 17, the WFP had $276 million to fund its Sudan operation — yaani about 27.6 crore dollars, less than half of last year's budget — and says it needs an extra $134 million (yaani about 13.4 crore dollars) to tackle hunger caused by drought. The decline of both aid and harvests at once is a "recipe for disaster," Carl Skau, acting executive director of the WFP, told Reuters in Cairo after a trip to Darfur. Rations had been halved in Tawila, a sprawling Darfur camp of about 700,000 people displaced by war, according to Skau.

Sudan's government has played down the threat to food supplies. Agriculture Minister Esmat Qureshi told a news conference on October 8 in Khartoum that this year's harvest would be lower but "not significantly less than last year's." The head of the RSF's humanitarian aid authority, Abdelrahman Ismail, told Reuters: "We have made efforts to coordinate and invite an early response, and we believe we can do more if the necessary resources and capacity are provided." Humanitarian agencies have repeatedly accused government troops and the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of blocking or hindering aid during the conflict, which both sides deny, Reuters reported.

"It's no longer just about bullets," said Adam Rojal, spokesman for the General Coordination of IDPs and Refugee Camps in Sudan, saying hunger rather than war was now driving people from their homes. Famine expert Alex De Waal said the situation today is in most respects "much, much worse" than in 1984 because of the conflict, adding that in the 1980s the world mobilised aid resources, while international aid budgets have now been cut back.