The UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national income on international aid by an estimated £400 million by the end of next year, The Guardian reported on Monday, citing calculations from the Center for Global Development (CGD). Yaani: the central shortfall of £410 million is about £0.41 billion (41 crore pounds).
Source: The Guardian via The Brief, Oct 26
Prime Minister Keir Starmer downgraded the aid target in February 2025 to boost defence spending, announcing that official development assistance (ODA) would fall from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income (GNI) in 2027 — well below the 0.7% Labour promised in its election manifesto, The Guardian reported via The Brief.
Source: The Guardian via The Brief, Oct 26
Why the gap has opened
CGD attributed the gap to two factors: inflation higher than expected, which pushed national income above the forecast made at the spending review — so a fixed cash allocation is a smaller share of it — and a 2025 policy change affecting the budget of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), which manages most UK aid. Even the most conservative forecast CGD considered implies a shortfall of £250 million, and CGD said the 0.3% target for 2027 would be a 25-year low.
Source: Center for Global Development, Oct 2026
The downward path is already visible: ODA fell to 0.44% of GNI in 2025, down from 0.5% in 2024, a drop of £987 million, The Brief reported, citing the figures. The Independent Commission for Aid Impact, which reviews UK aid, said ODA in 2026-27 was set to fall by around £3.1 billion, or 24% — yaani about £3.1 billion is roughly 310 crore pounds.
Source: The Guardian via The Brief, Oct 26
Calls to plug the gap in the Budget
Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at CGD and co-director of its Europe programme, said an additional £400 million could go some way towards reducing the impact of cuts to programmes in Africa, and CGD urged ministers to address the discrepancy in the upcoming Budget rather than wait until the end of the spending period. The government has defended moving to a fixed-budget approach, saying setting allocations in advance gives aid programmes greater stability and lets departments plan, according to reporting of The Guardian's story.
Source: Center for Global Development, Oct 2026
What is solid
- CGD's central forecast, based on the Treasury's September 2026 comparison of independent forecasts, puts the 2027 shortfall at £410 million and aid at 0.29% of GNI (CGD)
- The 0.3% target itself was set in February 2025, down from 0.5%, to boost defence spending (The Guardian via The Brief)
What is only claimed
- Whether ministers will add money in the upcoming Budget to close the gap — CGD urges it; the government has so far defended its fixed-budget approach, and no top-up has been announced in these reports
The analysis lands as Britain, once committed to 0.7% of national income in aid, prepares a Budget in which defence and domestic pressures compete with a development budget that CGD says is heading for its lowest share in 25 years.