LONDON — Interior minister Shabana Mahmood will on Monday set out reforms to how migrants can settle in Britain, Reuters reported, in a bid to balance voter demands for lower immigration with business warnings that tough rules could deter workers the country still needs.

Source: Reuters

Under the current rules, most migrants can apply for indefinite leave to remain after five years in Britain, enabling them to claim some welfare benefits. Mahmood has proposed replacing that with an 'earned settlement' system, making 10 years the standard route to permanent residency and requiring some lower-paid workers, including care workers, to wait up to 15 years, Reuters said.

10 yearsProposed standard route to settlement, double the current five years
15 yearsLongest proposed wait, for some lower-paid workers including care workers
171,000Net migration last year, almost half the 331,000 of a year earlier and down from a record 944,000 in 2023

The final conclusion Burnham promised in October

Awaaz Punjab reported on October 26 that Prime Minister Andy Burnham backed the principles of Mahmood's reform, calling settlement 'a right to be earned', and said Mahmood would 'set out the final conclusion soon' — at that point no final policy had been announced. Monday's statement is that set-out: The Guardian reported the government's response to its consultation would be put before MPs on Monday, with the standard qualifying period doubling from five years to 10, some waits of up to 15 years for below-graduate-level occupations including care work, and the wait potentially shortened for migrants who show community contribution or earn higher incomes.

Source: The Guardian via The Brief

Speaking before Mahmood's announcement, junior business minister Chris McDonald said immigration levels had become unsustainable under the previous Conservative-led government, Reuters reported. The government argues the changes are needed because around 350,000 lower-skilled workers and their dependants who arrived after Brexit are expected to become eligible for settlement in the coming years.

A possible softening for care workers already in Britain

Media reports have suggested Mahmood could soften some elements of the original proposals, potentially exempting care workers already in Britain or offering them a quicker route to settlement, Reuters said. BBC and Guardian reporting cited on Monday likewise indicated that existing social care workers are likely to receive more favourable treatment under the revised arrangements, after criticism from Labour politicians.

The same reporting put the Home Office's own figures behind the reform: net migration added 2.6 million people to the UK population between 2021 and 2024, about 1.6 million people could qualify for settlement between 2026 and 2030, and 196,000 care workers and their adult dependants could obtain settlement in that period at an estimated lifetime cost of £9.5 billion to taxpayers — yaani about £950 crore. A different assessment from the Institute for Public Policy Research was also reported on Monday; the final figures will rest on the statement Mahmood delivers.

For the large Punjabi and Indian community in Britain — including many who arrived after Brexit to work in health and social care or to study — the difference between a five-year and a 10- or 15-year wait is the difference between settling within one job and spending most of a working decade on temporary status. No final rules take effect from Monday's statement alone; what changes, and for whom, will be in the detail Mahmood lays before MPs.