The latest climate pledges put forward by nations will cut global greenhouse gas emissions by just 6 per cent by 2035, a UN report said on Tuesday, weeks before the COP31 talks in Turkey, AFP reported.

Source: AFP via Muser Press

That is a tenth of the roughly 60 per cent reduction from 2019 levels that scientists say is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cited in the report. For the Paris Agreement's fallback goal of staying below 2°C, emissions would still need to fall by 37 per cent by 2035.

6%Pledged emissions cut by 2035 vs 2019
9%Cut if conditional targets are also delivered
~60%Cut scientists say is needed for 1.5°C
154Countries covered by the synthesis

The report by UN Climate Change (the UNFCCC) is a synthesis of 127 new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) representing 154 parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement, submitted between 1 January 2024 and 31 August 2026 and covering about 71 per cent of global emissions, PTI reported.

Source: PTI via The Hindu BusinessLine

If the pledges and long-term decarbonisation targets are implemented, the report estimates best-estimate warming of 1.7 to 2.3°C by the end of the century. A separate UN Environment Programme assessment last week put the world on course for about 2.6°C of warming under present commitments, AFP reported.

Why the estimate fell

The UN last year estimated a 10 per cent cut by 2035, but that was before a large number of NDCs had come in and before the United States was taken out of the equation. Under President Donald Trump, the US has left the Paris Agreement for a second time and is pursuing policies that heavily favour fossil fuels, AFP reported.

"With its focus on practical measures to support greater implementation," the COP31 meeting in Turkey "can help address some of the key gaps," UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in a statement. The report also noted that most new NDCs are linked to long-term targets of reaching net zero between 2040 and 2070, with the majority aiming for 2050, PTI reported.

Global climate finance rose to an estimated $1.9 trillion a year in 2023-24, driven largely by private investment in renewables and low-emission technology, but the reporting reviewed said that still falls far short of what is needed for rapid cuts and adaptation. Yaani: $1.9 trillion is about $1,900 billion — roughly ₹-scale money far beyond any single country's annual budget, yet still described as insufficient for the transition the pledges promise.