A low-pressure area formed over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal at 5:30 a.m. on Friday, October 23, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its morning bulletin, setting up a system that is forecast to become a cyclonic storm by October 26.
Source: IMD via The Hindu
According to the IMD, the system formed under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation that lay over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal on Thursday. It is expected to persist over the same region initially and intensify into a depression on October 24.
Source: IMD via Sambad English
The system is then likely to move west-northwestwards and strengthen into a deep depression on October 25, before intensifying into a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of October 26, the IMD said.
After that, the IMD forecasts the system will continue to intensify while moving west-northwestwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts during the following two days. The IMD's Cyclone Warning Centre in Visakhapatnam issued a special message on the system on Friday, and heavy rain is expected in coastal Andhra Pradesh from October 27, The Hindu reported.
Source: The Hindu
Models differ on how strong it may get
The IMD's North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis notes differences among weather models on the system's peak intensity. Numerical models including ECMWF, ECAI and NCEP GFS indicate the possibility of intensification up to the very severe cyclonic storm category, while artificial intelligence-based models, including Mithuna and the IMD's own FGN and FCN, suggest intensification only up to the cyclonic storm category.
Source: IMD outlook via Sambad English
The eventual intensity and track will depend on how the system develops over the coming days, and the forecast remains subject to revision as fresh observations come in. The IMD is continuously monitoring the system and will issue further updates and advisories.
Source: IMD via The Orissa Today
Residents, fishermen and coastal communities along the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts have been advised to follow official IMD bulletins and local administration advisories for the latest information. Awaaz Punjab had reported on October 20 that this system was expected to form around October 23; Friday's bulletin confirms the formation and gives the first full intensification timeline.