A well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal has concentrated into a depression, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its bulletin on Saturday, October 31 — turning the forecast Awaaz Punjab reported on October 29 into an active storm system now moving towards the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Source: IMD bulletin via Tathya
The depression formed at 11:30 am IST on October 31 and was centred near latitude 10.0°N and longitude 90.2°E — about 330 km west-southwest of Sri Vijayapuram and 300 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the IMD said.
On October 29, IMD expected a fresh low over the Andaman Sea to become a depression by October 31. That depression has now formed, and the department's latest bulletin takes the system further — to cyclonic-storm strength. Read the earlier forecast
What IMD expects next
The system is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a deep depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal within the next 12 hours, and then into a cyclonic storm during the following 12 hours, reaching the west-central Bay of Bengal near the Andhra Pradesh coast around the evening of November 2, according to the IMD bulletin.
Source: IMD bulletin via Tathya
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the possible cyclone could make landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast on Tuesday morning, November 3, with wind speeds of 80–90 kmph and gusts reaching 100 kmph — weaker than Cyclone Arnab, which struck Andhra Pradesh and Odisha on October 28 with winds of around 150 kmph.
Source: The Business Standard
Rain and wind warnings
The IMD has warned of isolated extremely heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam on November 2 and very heavy rain on November 3, with very heavy rainfall also likely over Rayalaseema on November 2 and 3 and heavy rain over parts of Odisha on November 3 and 4.
Source: PTI via Fact.net.in
In Odisha, an orange warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall is in place for November 3 for Gajapati, Ganjam, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri districts, and Distant Cautionary Signal No. 1 has been hoisted at all Odisha ports. Fishermen have been strongly advised not to venture into the Bay of Bengal along and off the Odisha and Andhra coasts through November 4, with squally winds of 40–50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph expected from the evening of November 2, rising to 50–60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph on November 3.
Source: IMD bulletin via Tathya
If the system reaches cyclonic-storm strength, it will be named Murasu, a name proposed by India. Coastal residents in Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha should follow IMD bulletins, as the forecast track and strength can still change.