The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday, October 20, that a low-pressure area is likely to form over the Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining central parts of the sea around October 23, as the northeast monsoon gathers strength across Tamil Nadu, IANS reported.

According to the department, an upper-air circulation currently over the Gulf of Thailand and Myanmar is expected to influence the north Andaman Sea by Wednesday morning, setting the stage for the low to consolidate later in the week. The system is then likely to move westwards and northwestwards and could intensify into a depression, IANS reported, adding that whether it could strengthen into a cyclonic storm would be assessed in later bulletins — the present outlook indicates the possibility of further intensification without confirming a cyclone.

The Hindu BusinessLine reported that the IMD is also watching a second low expected to form over the south-west Bay and adjoining Tamil Nadu coast on Wednesday, and has forecast isolated very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on Wednesday and Thursday. It said the IMD's numerical projections indicate the Andaman Sea system could rapidly intensify into a tropical cyclone over warm waters, although the department has yet to take an official call, and that a fishermen's warning has been issued for the Andaman Sea for three days from Friday.

The strengthening monsoon has already brought widespread rain to Tamil Nadu's coastal belts, the Cauvery delta and districts adjoining the Western Ghats, with Chennai recording continuous rain on October 17, IANS reported, adding that the department warned of very heavy rainfall in seven districts on Tuesday. The Hindu BusinessLine recorded heavy overnight rain including Kozhikode (10 cm) in Kerala, Nancowry (7 cm) in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and Tiruvadanai and Thalaignayer (8 cm each) in Tamil Nadu.

Sources: IANS; The Hindu BusinessLine.