New Delhi, October 30 — India is on track to achieve or even exceed $1 trillion in exports this financial year if the pace of trade recorded in the first six months continues, Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran has said, putting exports in the first half at around $480 billion.

Source: ANI via The Hindu BusinessLine

“Trade numbers in the first 6 months of around $480 billion. If same pace continues, we are on track to exceed or even achieve $1 trillion exports this year,” Nageswaran said, speaking at the ISID-IDRA Fourth National Conference on reimagining India’s industrial strategy on Thursday. The figure covers goods and services exports together.

Source: ANI via LatestLY

$480 billionExports in the first six months of FY27
$1 trillionFull-year exports if the same pace continues
7.8%Real GDP growth in Q1 FY27, cited by the CEA
9.2%Manufacturing value-added growth, cited by the CEA

The Chief Economic Adviser paired the export projection with the economy’s first-quarter numbers: real GDP growth of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2026-27, manufacturing gross value-added growth of 9.2 per cent and gross fixed capital formation growth of 11.9 per cent. The $1 trillion mark, he indicated, would come on a total GDP size of about $4.2 trillion at the end of the year — encouraging, he said, given the challenging global outlook.

Source: Informist Media

He also set out the caution inside the headline number. Core merchandise imports grew 19.7 per cent year-on-year during April–September 2026, faster than the 16.2 per cent growth in core exports, and manufacturing’s share of gross value added has stayed broadly flat — 14.8 per cent in 2025-26 against 14.7 per cent in 2022-23 — even as manufacturing output itself grows strongly.

At the same conference, Nageswaran argued that support for domestic manufacturing must be linked to export competitiveness and the ability to match import prices, warning that protection without investment in productivity could weaken industrial resilience. India, he said, must make itself indispensable in global supply chains and add value at home before exporting — pointing to agro-processing as one sector where India could win 4-5 per cent of the global market and about $100 billion in exports.

Source: The Hindu

The projection matches the target the government has already set publicly. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal has said India is targeting $1 trillion in exports this fiscal year even as global trade is expected to grow just 2.5-3 per cent; India exported $863 billion in FY26, so the target needs roughly 16 per cent growth. Whether the mark is hit now depends on the second half holding the first half’s pace — the CEA’s own condition — with monthly trade data through March the test.

Source: Livemint

Projection, not a result

The $1 trillion figure is the Chief Economic Adviser’s projection based on first-half trade of about $480 billion. It is not an achieved total, and he said it holds only if the current pace continues.