The landfall process of very severe cyclonic storm Arnab is about to begin on the Andhra Pradesh coast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its late-night bulletin issued at 11:30 pm IST on Tuesday, October 27. The storm was centred near latitude 16.3°N and longitude 82.1°E over the west-central Bay of Bengal — about 50 km east-southeast of Narsapur, 70 km south of Kakinada, 100 km east of Machilipatnam, 180 km east-northeast of Bapatla and 200 km south-southwest of Visakhapatnam — after moving west-northwestwards at 22 kmph over the previous six hours.
Source: IMD bulletin via Dainik News Live
The IMD said the spiral band of the storm's northern sector has further entered the land and the centre is very close to the coastline, so the landfall process will commence during the next one to two hours. Arnab is expected to make landfall in the early hours of Wednesday, October 28, between 2 am and 4 am IST, crossing the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts between Bapatla and Visakhapatnam, close to south of Yanam, as a very severe cyclonic storm with maximum sustained winds of 125–135 kmph gusting to 150 kmph.
The News Trust, reporting the IMD bulletin issued at 11 pm on Tuesday — which placed the storm at 10:30 pm near 16.33°N, 82.15°E, about 70 km south of Kakinada and 50 km east-southeast of Narsapur, moving west-northwestwards at 17 kmph — said a storm surge of 1.5 to 2.5 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate low-lying areas of Andhra Pradesh during the next six hours, with the maximum peak surge expected near Kakinada and Yanam.
Source: The News Trust
84,396 people in 290 shelters as outer band hits the coast
The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) confirmed on Tuesday night that the storm's outer spiral band had already entered the coast and that complete landfall was expected between 2 am and 4 am. Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu said the cyclone has been placed in the red category but appealed to residents to remain calm and follow government advisories, confirming that 290 cyclone shelters have been activated and 84,396 people have already been evacuated, with state and district control rooms operating round the clock and hourly warning bulletins being issued.
Source: Nation Press
APSDMA Managing Director Prakhar Jain said heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely to continue until Wednesday morning. Since 8:30 am on Tuesday, very heavy rain had been recorded at 28 locations and heavy rainfall at 133 places, he said, with up to 30 cm of rain forecast for Srikakulam, up to 28 cm for West Godavari and up to 23 cm for Visakhapatnam. The districts expected to face the most severe impact are Konaseema, Eluru, West Godavari, Manyam, Vizianagaram, Srikakulam and Kakinada, and the stretch from Srikakulam to Bapatla lies in the direct impact zone.
The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), the State Disaster Response Force (SDRF), the Indian Navy and the Coast Guard have been deployed and placed on high alert, Nation Press reported. More than 30,000 fishing boats have been brought back to shore, and 93 Andhra Pradesh boats at Gopalpur, along with their crews, have been confirmed safe.
The timing marks a significant change from forecasts issued earlier on Tuesday, which had Arnab crossing the coast by the forenoon of October 28; the IMD noted the storm was advancing faster than anticipated, which brought the projected landfall window forward to the early hours. Residents of coastal villages, island settlements and flood-prone zones have been urged to move to designated cyclone shelters immediately and to stay indoors as the storm crosses.