Amaravati, November 1: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has raised its warning for Cyclone Murasu to a Cyclone Warning with a Red Message — the third of its four warning stages — for the Andhra Pradesh and adjoining north Tamil Nadu coasts, in National Bulletin No. 7 issued at 5.30 p.m. IST on Sunday, November 1. The upgrade comes roughly a day and a half before the storm is forecast to cross the south Andhra coast.

Source: IMD National Bulletin No. 7 (PDF)

At 2.30 p.m. IST, Murasu lay centred near latitude 12.4°N and longitude 84.6°E over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal, about 480 km east-southeast of Chennai, 550 km east-southeast of Nellore, 560 km southeast of Machilipatnam, 600 km southeast of Ongole and 610 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam. It had moved west-northwestwards at about 27 kmph over the previous six hours, with maximum sustained winds of 70–80 kmph gusting to 90 kmph — up from 65–75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph when it was named late this morning.

Source: IMD National Bulletin No. 7 (PDF)

Stage 3 of 4Cyclone Warning — Red Message, up from Stage 2 Cyclone Alert at 1 p.m.
1.0–1.5 metresForecast storm surge above the tide at landfall, up from about 1 metre
11:30 pm Mon – 4 am TueForecast crossing window, Nellore–Narsapur
100–110 kmph, gusting 120Forecast winds at crossing, as a severe cyclonic storm

The bulletin says a storm surge of about 1.0–1.5 metres above the astronomical tide is very likely to inundate low-lying areas of south coastal Andhra Pradesh at landfall, with the maximum peak surge expected over Bapatla district and also over Guntur, Krishna and Prakasam districts. IMD expects major damage to thatched and kutcha houses, minor damage to power and communication poles, uprooting of large trees and major damage to standing coastal crops, and has advised a total suspension of fishing operations, with coastal hutment dwellers moved to safer places and people in affected areas asked to remain indoors.

Source: IMD National Bulletin No. 7 (PDF)

What changed since the 1 p.m. bulletin

Awaaz Punjab reported earlier today that the system intensified into Cyclonic Storm Murasu at 11.30 a.m. and that the IMD's 1 p.m. Bulletin No. 5 raised a Stage 2 Cyclone Alert, keeping a landfall forecast of the morning of November 3. The 2.30 p.m. Bulletin No. 6 pinned the crossing to the overnight window of 11.30 p.m. Monday to 4 a.m. Tuesday, and Bulletin No. 7 now raises both the warning stage and the surge. The rest of the forecast is unchanged: Murasu is very likely to become a severe cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal around Monday morning, then turn northwestwards and cross between Nellore and Narsapur during midnight of November 2 to the early hours of November 3 at 100–110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph, before weakening inland to a depression by Wednesday forenoon. The crossing window was also reported by IANS.

Source: Transclew live coverage of IMD bulletins 5–7; IANS via New Kerala

On rain and wind, IMD forecasts light to moderate rain at most places over coastal Andhra Pradesh with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places on November 2 and 3, heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places in Tamil Nadu on November 3, and extremely heavy rain at isolated places in Telangana on November 3. Along and off the Andhra coast, winds are forecast to reach gale force of 65–75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph by Monday noon and peak at 100–110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph from Monday midnight to Tuesday noon. Fishermen have been advised not to venture along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast from the morning of November 2 to the afternoon of November 4. IMD's next bulletin is due at 8.30 p.m. IST.

Source: IMD National Bulletin No. 7 (PDF)

In the state capital's response, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu has cancelled his visit to Delhi on Monday because of the cyclone, his office said on X at 3.44 p.m. IST. The Chief Minister's Office post said the storm is likely to cross the coast near Bapatla as a severe cyclone on the morning of November 3 and that Naidu reviewed relief work after Cyclone Arnab, which struck the same coastline last week. IMD itself has not named a single crossing point — Bapatla lies inside the Nellore–Narsapur stretch its bulletins give — and its stated crossing window remains the Monday-midnight to Tuesday-early-hours period.

Source: CMO Andhra Pradesh on X, via Transclew live coverage