NEW DELHI — India's gold demand is expected to fall to a six-year low in 2026, as elevated prices weigh on jewellery sales and investment demand moderates, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday. Total demand is likely to be around 650 metric tonnes this year — within a 625–675 tonne range — the lowest since 2020, when the pandemic forced jewellery shops to close, WGC India chief executive Sachin Jain told Reuters, Devdiscourse reported.

Source: Reuters via Devdiscourse

162.5 tonnesIndia's Q3 2026 gold demand, down 29% year on year
Rs 1,48,891Average domestic price per 10 grams in Q3, up 45%
625-675 tonnesWGC full-year 2026 demand range, lowest since 2020
Rs 2,41,900 croreValue of Q3 demand, up 3% despite lower volumes

In the September quarter, demand fell 29% year on year to 162.5 tonnes from 229.8 tonnes, the WGC's Gold Demand Trends India report said. Jewellery demand fell 20% to 99.9 tonnes, while investment demand through bars and coins fell 40% to 55 tonnes. Yet because prices were so much higher, the value of demand still rose 3% to ₹2,41,900 crore (yaani about ₹2.42 lakh crore). In the first nine months of 2026, demand was 12% lower at about 444 tonnes, while its value rose 38%, according to the report covered by GJEPC's Solitaire magazine.

Source: GJEPC Solitaire (WGC Q3 2026 report)

Jain said elevated prices changed how Indians buy: households are still prioritising gold, but are making more considered, budget-capped purchases and leaning on exchange programmes, trading in old jewellery instead of paying full price for new pieces. Demand did recover from a weak June quarter — Q3 volumes rose 24% sequentially from 130.9 tonnes — but not enough to match last year's strong quarter.

The 15% duty and the unofficial route

On May 13, the government raised the customs duty on gold from 6% to 15%. Official bullion imports, including doré, fell 70% in Q3 to 64 tonnes, and net imports dropped 46% to 114.1 tonnes. But the WGC, citing Metals Focus data, estimated unofficial inflows at around 50 tonnes in the quarter, compared with just 3 tonnes a year earlier — a more than fifteen-fold jump that analysts link to the higher duty, BigBreakingWire reported.

The Reserve Bank of India stayed on the sidelines: its gold holdings were broadly unchanged at about 880.5 tonnes at the end of September, with no purchases in Q3, the WGC said. Globally, central banks added a net 321 tonnes in the quarter. Looking ahead, the WGC expects the festive and wedding season — Dhanteras falls on Friday, November 6 — to support demand in the December quarter, though high prices and a weak rural economy after a poor monsoon could keep volumes capped.