Economists on Thursday maintained their expectation of back-to-back repo rate hikes after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of India's October Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting showed a more hawkish tone, with SBI Research continuing to forecast a 50-basis-point hike in December, IANS reported.

Source: IANS via Tripura Times, Oct 22, 2026

The MPC had voted unanimously on October 7 to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50 per cent — its first hike in nearly four years — and shifted its stance from neutral to 'calibrated tightening', PTI reported from the minutes released on Wednesday. Governor Sanjay Malhotra said there were increasing signs of inflation becoming generalised, noting that 37 per cent of the items in the CPI basket had inflation above 4 per cent in August, up from 20 per cent in March, PTI said.

Source: PTI via Swadesi News — MPC minutes, Oct 21, 2026

SBI Research said the December move could come either as a straight 50-basis-point repo hike or as a 25-basis-point hike combined with a 25-basis-point asymmetric widening of the Liquidity Adjustment Facility corridor, taking the MSF rate to 6.25 per cent and the SDF rate to 5.50 per cent, IANS reported. 'The broadening of inflationary pressures, alongside persistent rupee weakness, calls for close monitoring by the RBI and a calibrated policy response to contain inflation risks and reinforce monetary transmission,' said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Adviser at the State Bank of India, who expects peak inflation to stay below 6.5 per cent by November.

Source: IANS via Tripura Times, Oct 22, 2026

DBS Bank senior economist Radhika Rao said the minutes reflected the hawkish pivot, with two external members in the most hawkish camp pressing for pre-emptive action while two others favoured only incremental hikes and rejected signalling a prolonged tightening cycle, IANS reported. With inflation set to rise towards 6 per cent in the October-December quarter, 'the door remains open for a back-to-back hike in December,' Rao said. Informist's reading of the minutes noted that calibrated tightening need not mean consistent hikes, with the pace depending on how inflation and growth evolve.

Source: Informist Media — MPC minutes analysis, Oct 21, 2026

In markets, bond yields stayed high while the rupee strengthened by around 1.5 per cent against the US dollar this month, helped by forex regulatory measures and inflows towards the country's biggest-ever equity IPO, economists cited by IANS said. Sources: IANS, PTI and Informist, October 21-22, 2026.