Kathmandu, October 24 — Nepal could receive heavy rain next week as a cyclonic storm develops in the Bay of Bengal, meteorologists have warned. A low-pressure area formed over the east-central and adjoining southeastern Bay of Bengal at 5:45 am on Friday, and Nepal's Department of Hydrology and Meteorology says it is expected to gradually intensify and develop into a cyclonic storm by Monday, October 26, news agency ANI reported.
Source: ANI via LatestLY
The department says the storm is likely to move west-northwestwards and make landfall along the coast near northern Andhra Pradesh and the adjoining southern Odisha coast in India. Nepal is not on the landfall path, but the wider weather system could still affect conditions in Nepal from Wednesday, October 28 through Sunday, November 1, according to the department's notice, which Nepali outlets OnlineKhabar and Nagarik also reported on Friday evening.
Source: Nepal Wire (OnlineKhabar / Nagarik)
Meteorologist Binod Pokharel, in a social media post, indicated the possibility of over 200 millimetres of rainfall in total in some areas during the wet spell expected from Wednesday through Sunday. He clarified that this should not be interpreted as rainfall occurring in a single day, and that the actual amounts, timing and affected areas may still change. The 200-millimetre figure is Pokharel's projection from the forecasts he is reviewing — the department itself has said it is not yet possible to determine the rainfall amount, the level of risk or the potential impact with certainty.
"Even during the monsoon, such rainfall over a short period would be hazardous. Since this is the time for harvesting paddy and also a period when many travel in the Himalayan regions, the consequences could be even more severe," Pokharel warned, adding that in the high Himalayan regions heavy snowfall, extreme cold and avalanches could increase the risks. He advised people to plan travel only after checking weather updates and official advisories.
Pokharel noted that current indicators bear some resemblance to the conditions that led to the October 2014 blizzard associated with Cyclone Hudhud, in which 43 people lost their lives, including in the trekking regions around Annapurna. He stressed, however, that this does not necessarily mean the outcome will be the same, and that being alert in advance should leave people better prepared this time.
The department has advised all concerned to remain alert because the potential adverse weather could affect the agricultural and tourism sectors, and has forecast a slight decline in maximum and minimum temperatures across various parts of the country over the coming week. Forecasters say they are watching satellite images and weather models and will issue updates as the picture becomes clearer.