In California's Central Valley, Republican Congressman David Valadao is fighting for re-election in a district where roughly six in ten residents — about 62% — are enrolled in Medicaid, the highest share of any Republican-held seat in the country, according to reporting by KFF Health News published this week and carried by NPR affiliates including WLIW and WHRO.
Source: KFF Health News via WLIW-FM (NPR)
Valadao, who has won six of his last seven elections in the Bakersfield-centred 22nd District, voted last year for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The tax and spending law is expected to reduce Medicaid spending by more than $900 billion through 2034, through stricter eligibility rules, new work requirements and reduced federal money to states, the report said. The new work requirements and twice-a-year eligibility checks start after the November midterm elections.
Source: KFF Health News via WHRO
What the estimates say — and the two campaigns' claims
An estimated 60,000 more residents of Valadao's district could lose coverage by 2034 because of the law and the expiry of enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, according to the Center for American Progress, a left-leaning think tank cited in the reporting. Researchers cited in the report estimate the new rules could push more than 2 million Californians off coverage statewide and cost the state about $30 billion a year in federal support. These are estimates and projections, not counts of people who have already lost coverage.
Challenger Randy Villegas, a political science professor backing 'Medicare for All', has called the vote one that will 'rip away healthcare from Valley families', arguing many working-age adults may fail the new work requirements. Valadao defended his vote in a televised debate on October 6, saying 'there are no actual cuts' to Medicaid. Both statements are the candidates' claims; voters decide on November 3.
Outside Valadao's Bakersfield office, resident Ulises Hernandez, 41, who uses a wheelchair, protested the looming changes, telling the reporter he was 'livid' after spending eight hours in an emergency room in September when a dental crown slipped down his throat during a procedure, and fearing longer waits and clinic closures ahead. His account is his own experience as reported by KFF Health News.
~62% of the district on Medicaid — highest for a Republican-held seat (KFF/NPR); $900B+ projected Medicaid reduction through 2034 under the law; ~60,000 district residents estimated to lose coverage by 2034 (Center for American Progress estimate); Nov. 3 midterms decide the seat.