Pagosa Springs, Colorado, is bracing for a second, bigger flood in nine days. In an update issued at 1:20 p.m. on Saturday, October 31, the Archuleta County Sheriff's Office said a Flood Warning is in effect from Sunday morning to Monday morning for the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs, and that mandatory evacuation orders for all low-lying areas along four rivers are still in effect. Its message to anyone who has not yet left was blunt: "If you have not evacuated, do so today."
Source: Archuleta County Sheriff's Office update, Oct. 31, 2026, via Pagosa Daily Post
The reason for the urgency is a forecast that changed sharply in a day. County figures reported on Friday pointed to a San Juan crest of about 10.6 feet, just over flood stage. By Saturday, the Sheriff's Office and its Incident Management Team were warning that the river is expected to crest at 16.9 feet around midnight on Sunday night — higher than last week's flood and less than a foot below the historic record of 17.8 feet, set in October 1911. As of Saturday morning, the river had already begun to rise.
Periods of heavy rain are expected to begin around sunrise on Sunday and continue through Monday morning, the Sheriff's Office said. About 3 inches of rain is expected in the Pagosa Springs area, with up to 18 inches of snow in the mountains depending on elevation, and a Winter Weather Warning is in effect for the mountains over the same period. Forecast summaries based on the National Weather Service office in Grand Junction put flood stage at 10.5 feet, with the river rising above it on Sunday afternoon.
Source: Particle News, reporting National Weather Service and Archuleta County officials, Oct. 31, 2026
"Evacuate today" — the order covers four rivers
The mandatory evacuation orders cover all low-lying areas along the San Juan River, the Rio Blanco River, the Navajo River and the Piedra River in and around Pagosa Springs and Archuleta County. The orders were first imposed during last week's flooding and, the Sheriff's Office stresses, have not been lifted ahead of this second storm.
Residents who choose to stay despite the order were told to expect higher water than last week and to be ready to shelter in place for the whole storm, because emergency responders may not be able to reach them. The Sheriff's Office told them to prepare a go-bag with food, water, medications, critical documents and a fully charged cell phone, plus pet food, medications and a leash or muzzle where needed, to go to the highest floor of the building if water enters, to avoid attics where rising water can trap people, and to move onto the roof and call 911 if the water keeps rising inside.
Emergency: 911. Help evacuating: non-emergency dispatch, 970-731-2160. Other flood questions: Incident Call Center, 970-508-9928. Sand and bags (self-fill): Public Works Building, 1122 Hwy 84, and Los Pinos Fire Station, 275 Browning Ave, Ignacio; a limited number of pre-filled bags are available at the Public Works Building. Livestock help: text CSU Extension agent Cindi Galabota at 970-903-9860.
The Sheriff's Office also urged people outside the evacuation zones to consider leaving for the duration of the storm if they have medical needs or cannot safely shelter in place, warning that conditions after the storm may delay rescuers' ability to reach them. Livestock owners were advised to move animals to higher ground.
A town still cleaning up from last week
This is the second time in nine days that Pagosa Springs has faced the San Juan at extreme levels. The first flood ran from October 21 to October 25, driven by heavy rain from an atmospheric river in a strong El Niño pattern, with moisture from the remains of Hurricane Trudy. The river, normally about 4 feet deep at the town, peaked at about 15 feet by most measures — the Sheriff's Office puts last week's crest at 15.5 feet — its highest level in more than 100 years and the worst flooding since 1911. More than 540 homes were damaged, about a quarter of the town's roads were left impassable, bridges, culverts and the town's famous hot springs were flooded, and a disaster emergency was declared.
Awaaz Punjab covered the first flood and its mandatory evacuations as they unfolded last week. Read: last week's Pagosa Springs flood evacuations
The new storm is arriving on ground that has had no time to recover. Rivers across the Four Corners region — where Colorado, Utah, Arizona and New Mexico meet — remain swollen after weeks of storms, and NPR reported on Saturday that hundreds of residents across the region have been displaced, including in the Navajo Nation and in Farmington, New Mexico, where the Animas and San Juan rivers overflowed last week, and that at least one person died in New Mexico last weekend after being swept away in floodwaters.
Source: NPR, Oct. 31, 2026
What happens next
The critical window runs from sunrise on Sunday, when the heavy rain begins, through the expected crest around midnight on Sunday night and the end of the Flood Warning on Monday morning. Because this forecast crest — 16.9 feet, with some forecast summaries putting it near 17.0 feet early Monday — would exceed last week's water levels, officials expect damage assessments, road closures and rescue calls to continue into the new week in areas that were only beginning to dry out. Archuleta County has already declared a local disaster from the first flood and, officials have said, may seek state and federal aid if the new storm causes more major damage.
For readers travelling through southwest Colorado, the practical advice from the Sheriff's Office is to monitor local emergency alerts, stay out of the closed river areas, and never assume help will be immediately available if you become stranded. This report will be updated if the crest forecast or the evacuation orders change.