US consumer sentiment edged down to near a record low in October as rising prices linked to the Middle East conflict soured households' views of the economy, the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers showed on Friday, reported by Reuters on October 23. The Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 48.0 this month from a final reading of 48.1 in September — above the 46.3 that economists polled by Reuters had forecast, which was also the index's preliminary October reading.

Source: Reuters — US consumer sentiment near record low ahead of midterm elections, Oct. 23, 2026

October's reading was the second-lowest on record, after the all-time low of 44.8 set in May, not long after the Iran war began. “Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the Surveys of Consumers. “Sentiment is now 10% below a year ago and 15% less than February, just prior to the Iran conflict.”

Source: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, via Reuters, Oct. 23, 2026

48.0Consumer Sentiment Index, October (Univ. of Michigan)
44.8All-time low, set in May 2026
4.7%One-year inflation expectations (was 4.6% in September)
42.4Sentiment among independents (was 47.7 in September)

Prices are what households feel

The survey's measure of expected inflation over the next year nudged up to 4.7% from 4.6% in September — it stood at 3.4% in February, before the US-Israeli war with Iran started. Expectations for inflation over the next five years also rose, to 3.5% from 3.4%. For diaspora households watching grocery bills, rent and diesel and petrol prices, the survey captures the same squeeze: incomes are being judged against prices that keep climbing.

A midterm warning sign

The weaker sentiment was led by independents, the swing bloc that often decides close US elections: their score dropped to 42.4 — just above May's record-low 40.6 — from 47.7 in September, while scores for Democrats and Republicans improved, the party breakdown of the Michigan data showed, according to Reuters. Millions of voters have already cast early ballots for the November 3 midterm election, which will determine control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, in a campaign centred on affordability.