President Donald Trump's administration has made $15 billion worth of promises to agriculture producers in the last few weeks of the midterm election campaign, in initiatives intended to help offset higher costs for diesel and fertilizer that farmers have endured largely due to his tariffs and the war in Iran, the Associated Press reported from Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

Source: Associated Press

Whether the pledges will motivate more voters to turn out in agricultural states where traditionally Republican seats are now seen as competitive is unclear, AP said. The promises may also explain the president's increased attention on rural areas in the final days — including Sunday's visits to Iowa and Kansas, two days before the election.

Where the money is promised to go

Of the $15 billion, more than half will go toward an $8 billion one-time payment plan for farmers buffeted by soaring diesel prices. The Department of Agriculture said it will release more details about the payments this month; it is not clear when the money will actually reach farmers, who rely on diesel for trucks, tractors and combines.

At least $5 billion was announced in guaranteed loans for ranchers and fishermen. A further $1.8 billion in payments is for producers and landowners who participated in conservation programmes, $573 million will go toward fertilizer manufacturing projects, $57 million is for expanding meat processors, and $86.6 million in grants will be awarded to innovative projects for specialty crop producers.

On Thursday, the Agriculture Department said it would purchase up to $472.5 million in agricultural commodities to support producers and give to charitable programmes. The department also announced expanding sales of a diesel normally used only for off-road use, making cattle sale data more transparent for ranchers, and strengthening wolf management policies to protect livestock.

Separate from the $15 billion, the agency plans $13.8 billion in safety-net programme payments for eligible producers for the 2025 crop year, offsetting shortfalls for farmers who grow key crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat and rice.

Why farmers are squeezed

It has been a frustrating year for farmers, AP reported: increased costs for fertilizer and fuel have made it difficult to turn a profit. Last year, tariffs drove up expenses for other equipment farmers use, and the trade war with China resulted in a near boycott of U.S. agricultural goods.

On Friday, diesel was averaging $6.32 per gallon, down slightly from its peak in September but 70 percent higher than the price a year ago, according to motor club AAA. Filling up a 100-gallon tank now costs $260 more than it did one year ago — a figure that will be familiar to Punjabi truckers across the United States, whose trucks burn the same diesel at the same pumps, even though the farm payments themselves are aimed at producers.

Gregg Ibendahl, a farm management specialist at Kansas State University, said he estimates the payments would "more than cover the increase in fuel costs," and that the money could help with high fertilizer prices. "That input side risk, I think, is the thing that really has hurt farmers this year, as well as the fact that there has been a lot more uncertainty about what's going to happen in the world," he said.

But Ibendahl also warned the help is temporary: he expects the ad hoc payments to be a big help for farmers who otherwise would not make a profit this year, but they do not address the broader issues driving up prices. "It's hard to go to your lender in the next spring and say, 'OK, well, we're looking pretty good this year, but it's all because of these extra temporary government payments, so how much can you make me a loan (for) next year for my crop?'" he said.

Alexandra Middlewood, an associate professor of political science at Wichita State University, said she has heard mixed reactions from farmers, who are happy their business will survive this year but see these programmes as one-time bailouts rather than a long-term solution. Michael Smith, a political science professor at Emporia State University, noted that immigrant deportations have threatened the agricultural labour force and cuts to foreign aid and food-stamp programmes have hurt markets for farm products. "Some people who admire Trump really just admire the person, the man," he said. "But it doesn't mean they necessarily like his policies. Well, Trump himself isn't on the ballot this year. His policies are."