WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve will skip raising interest rates this month and deliver a hike in December, according to nearly all economists polled by Reuters, as policymakers signal patience even as stubborn inflation argues for a tougher response.

An overwhelming majority of economists, 94 of 100, in the October 16-20 Reuters poll expect the central bank to hold the federal funds rate in a 3.75%-4.00% range at its October 27-28 meeting, in line with market pricing. That meeting is just days before the November midterm elections. But all 100 respondents expect a rate hike in December, a sharp reversal from less than half saying so in last month's poll. The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points in September, Reuters reported.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who has made clear he is not keen on giving guidance, has kept mum, Reuters said. 'You have a strong economy and you have inflation. There's really no reason for you to worry so much about getting interest rates higher, this is like the easiest choice,' said Alex Pelle, senior US economist at Mizuho Securities, quoted by Reuters. 'Unfortunately, the Fed is really not getting more on top of the issue, they're just treading water and perhaps even getting a little behind.'

For now, markets and economists are following the messaging, not the data, Reuters reported. Conflicting signals from the central bank recently have ridden roughshod over bond markets: longer-dated Treasury yields surged to multi-decade highs on October 7 on higher inflation and near-term rate expectations before retreating nearly 25 basis points as the likelihood of an October hike slipped away, and rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yields have also been whipsawed higher then sharply lower.

Why it matters for our readers: a December hike would keep borrowing costs high into the new year — for Punjabi truckers financing trucks and trailers, for newcomers carrying mortgages, and for small businesses in the US and Canada watching US rates because Canadian borrowing costs often move in their shadow. This is a poll of expectations, not a Fed decision; the actual decision comes at the October 27-28 meeting.

Sources: Reuters, 'Fed to skip October but raise rates again in December, nearly all economists say: Reuters poll,' by Indradip Ghosh, Bengaluru, October 20, 2026, published via KELO-FM, WNCY, 94.1 The Duke and other Reuters syndication outlets, October 20, 2026.