South Florida could see flooding from Sunday, October 25, into early next week as heavy rain, strong winds and king tides arrive together, according to the forecast issued on Wednesday, October 21, reported by Focal News in Miami.

Source: Focal News, reporting the forecast

The Weather Prediction Center placed most of the region under a Level 2 risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday, with a slight risk of flash flooding, Focal News reported. Rain is expected to increase from scattered showers on Friday to heavier and more widespread conditions on Saturday and Sunday.

Level 2Weather Prediction Center excessive-rainfall risk for most of South Florida on Sunday
30-40 mphforecast wind gusts Sunday into Monday
5-9 ftbreaking waves in the Palm Beach County surf zone under the high surf advisory
Oct 25Sunday when flood risk is expected to rise

Minor flooding this week, higher risk at the weekend

Higher-than-normal tides are expected to peak late in the weekend and early next week. Minor seawater flooding was possible in low-lying coastal areas starting Wednesday, while moderate to major coastal flooding could develop as the tides coincide with the unsettled weather, according to the forecast. The National Weather Service in Miami, in a discussion issued at 2:09 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, also raised the possibility of moderate flooding by Friday or the weekend, with potentially major flooding at the peak in Palm Beach County — a forecast possibility, not an observed result.

Source: NWS Miami forecast discussion, via Zenith Weather

In Palm Beach County, the National Weather Service issued a high surf advisory in effect until 8 p.m. Friday, with breaking waves of 5 to 9 feet, a high rip current risk through Friday evening, and a coastal flood statement from 3 a.m. Wednesday through Thursday evening warning of isolated minor coastal flooding around high tide, with some water possible on low-lying roads and property, Boca Daily News reported.

Source: Boca Daily News, reporting the National Weather Service

Wind gusts could reach 30 to 40 mph or stronger Sunday into Monday, and the combination of wind, rain and coastal water could make for hazardous conditions across Miami-Dade and Broward counties, Focal News reported. A high risk of rip currents was in effect for Atlantic beaches on Wednesday, and a small craft advisory remained in place because of choppy bay conditions.

What is solid

  • The Weather Prediction Center placed most of South Florida under a Level 2 excessive-rainfall risk for Sunday, October 25, with a slight flash-flood risk, according to Focal News reporting the forecast.
  • The National Weather Service expects minor coastal flooding around high tide in South Florida this week, and in Palm Beach County a coastal flood statement runs through Thursday evening, Boca Daily News reported.
  • A high surf advisory for coastal Palm Beach County, with 5 to 9 foot breaking waves, is in effect until 8 p.m. Friday, and a high rip current risk runs through Friday evening.

What is only claimed

  • Moderate to major coastal flooding late in the weekend is a forecast possibility raised by forecasters, including at the peak in Palm Beach County — it has not happened yet and will depend on how rain, wind and tide timing overlap.
  • Exact rainfall totals and which neighbourhoods flood, if any, are not yet known; residents should follow updated National Weather Service warnings rather than a single forecast.

Forecasters called Wednesday mostly sunny and breezy in South Florida, with highs in the low 80s, followed by a mostly dry Thursday and scattered showers Friday, before conditions turn wetter at the weekend.