Nevada closed its two weeks of early voting on Friday with more than 665,000 ballots already cast statewide — about 32 percent of the state's active registered voters — and with its governor's race in a dead heat. Figures from the Nevada Secretary of State's office, cited by KTNV, showed in-person early voting climbing every day of the final week, and the last day, Friday, October 30, was on course to be the busiest of the two weeks if the week's pattern held.
Source: KTNV reporting via News in Las Vegas
The headline number underneath the turnout is a tie. Noble Predictive Insights' poll of record for Nevada, released Friday and conducted October 26-28 among 487 likely voters, puts Republican Governor Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford at 47 percent each, with 1 percent for independent Danielle Ford (no relation to Aaron Ford), 1 percent for another candidate and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.44 percentage points.
Source: Noble Predictive Insights, Nevada poll of record, Oct 30, 2026
How the early vote built, day by day
About 23,000 Nevadans voted in person on Monday of the final week; by Thursday the daily in-person figure had grown to nearly 32,000, KTNV reported, with Friday expected to top it. The party picture is split in a way both campaigns are reading closely: Republicans led Democrats by about 9,000 ballots in the total early vote as of Friday, while Democrats held a lead of nearly 45,000 among mail-in ballots. Election Day itself, Tuesday, November 3, has historically drawn larger in-person Republican turnout in Nevada, which is why neither side is treating the early numbers as a result. Polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
Inside the tie: two different coalitions
Both nominees have their bases locked in — Lombardo holds 89 percent of Republicans and Ford 90 percent of Democrats — so the race runs through independents and the undecided. Ford leads independents 45 percent to 39 percent, but 10 percent of independents are still undecided, more than twice the statewide share, and Noble notes they could swing the race either way if they break together. Age draws the sharpest line in the poll: voters aged 18 to 44 favor Ford 58 to 34, while voters 45 and older favor Lombardo 55 to 40. Men favor Lombardo 53 to 42; women favor Ford 51 to 42.
"This race is tied on the topline, but the coalitions behind those numbers look very different. Ford leads younger voters and Independents, while Lombardo leads older voters and holds nearly nine in ten Republicans. With one in ten Independents still undecided, there's very little separating these two candidates." — Mike Noble, founder and CEO, Noble Predictive Insights
The early-vote split inside the poll underlines the Election Day stakes. About 45 percent of likely voters said they had already voted or returned a ballot, and Ford leads among them 55 to 42. Among those yet to vote, Lombardo leads 51 to 39. "Ford leads by 13 points among voters who say they've already voted, while Lombardo leads by 12 among those who haven't. For Lombardo, that means a substantial part of his support still needs to become a vote. In a tied race, that follow-through could make the difference," Noble said. Lombardo also holds a cash edge: campaign finance reports through September 30 show about $2.8 million in his campaign account against Ford's $1.3 million, the pollster noted, citing Nevada Independent compilations.
Democrats lead the rest of the statewide ticket
The governor's race is the outlier on the ballot. In the same poll, Democrat Sandra Jauregui leads Republican Lieutenant Governor Stavros Anthony 48 to 41 for lieutenant governor, with 3 percent for Independent American Party candidate Janine Hansen and 8 percent undecided. For attorney general, Democrat Nicole Cannizzaro has reached 50 percent against Republican Adriana Guzmán Fralick's 42 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, a Democrat, holds the widest lead of the four races, 51 to 38 over Republican Jim Marchant. "The governor's race tells a different story from the rest of the Republican ticket," Noble said.
Two ballot questions, and the Trump backdrop
Nevadans are also voting a second time on two constitutional amendments that passed in 2024 and must pass again to take effect. Question 6, which would establish a constitutional right to abortion until fetal viability, is supported 57 to 34. Question 7, which would require photo ID for in-person voting and identifying information for mail ballots, leads 58 to 37. Independents back both measures — the combination that prompted Noble to say Nevada's independents "don't fit neatly into either party's political box." Behind the state races sits a difficult national backdrop for the incumbent party: President Donald Trump's job approval in the poll is 42 percent against 58 percent disapproval, with 54 percent strongly disapproving. Lombardo's 47 percent runs five points ahead of Trump's approval, and 18 percent of Lombardo's own supporters disapprove of Trump — the separation Noble called the race's paradox.
What happens next
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, with polls open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. The U.S. Department of Justice has notified the Secretary of State that it will send observers to voting sites in Clark County, home to Las Vegas, and Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar has said he welcomes anyone who wants to watch democracy in action, KOLO reported. Nevada will not release results until the last voter anywhere in the state has cast a ballot, and final unofficial results are not expected until about a week after Election Day, though the shape of most races should be clear on Tuesday or Wednesday, KTNV reported. For Nevada's Punjabi families — concentrated in Las Vegas and Reno, and for the truckers who run Interstates 15 and 80 and U.S. 95 through the state — Tuesday decides who runs the state government, its highways budget and its election rules for the next four years, in a race that starts the day in a statistical tie.