RALEIGH, North Carolina — North Carolina's early vote for the November 3 midterm elections has surged past 1.2 million ballots, reaching approximately 1.27 million by October 23 — an increase of nearly 169,000 from the previous reported total, according to statewide tracker reporting cited by Greater Diversity News.

Source: Greater Diversity News

Behind the headline total, the racial breakdown is drawing attention. In the latest independently verified statewide breakdown, covering ballots through October 20, Black voters accounted for approximately 22.7% of accepted early ballots, compared with 18.6% at the equivalent point in the 2022 midterm election — an increase of 4.1 percentage points, Greater Diversity News reported. Statewide, accepted early ballots in that October 20 dataset were approximately 38% ahead of the comparable 2022 period.

~1.27 millionEarly ballots reported statewide by Oct. 23
22.7%Black voters' share of accepted early ballots through Oct. 20
18.6%Black voters' share at the equivalent point in 2022
~38%How far accepted early ballots were ahead of the comparable 2022 period in the Oct. 20 dataset

The pattern matters most in the state's redrawn 1st Congressional District, where Greater Diversity News noted that Black participation could carry particular significance after the new map reduced the Black share of the district's voting-age population while adding more Republican-leaning coastal territory. Early voting does not reveal which candidates voters support, and a strong opening does not guarantee the pace holds through Election Day.

Source: Greater Diversity News

A separate day-by-day analysis by the NC Politics Center, covering the first seven days of early voting, found Democrats and unaffiliated voters made up 77% of in-person early ballots, with Republicans at 23%, and that mail-in ballots remained 31.3% below the matched 2022 total even as in-person voting ran ahead. The seven major urban counties — Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Durham, Buncombe, Forsyth and New Hanover — accounted for over 45% of the state's ballots cast so far, that analysis said.

Source: NC Politics Center

Registration figures are not candidate votes: a registered Democrat may vote for a Republican and vice versa. What the numbers do show, analysts say, is that the composition of the early electorate looks considerably different from the comparable stage of the 2022 midterm — and whether Black participation keeps pace in the state's Black Belt counties will be one of the numbers to watch in the final days of early voting.