America's two biggest oil companies reported blowout third-quarter profits on Friday, October 30, as the war with Iran kept fuel prices at record levels for drivers and truckers. ExxonMobil earned $15.4 billion in the quarter, slightly more than double what it earned a year earlier, and Chevron's adjusted earnings jumped 186% to $10.4 billion, CNN reported from the companies' results. Together with Shell, BP and TotalEnergies, the five Western oil majors posted $56.3 billion in combined adjusted profit for the quarter — and every one of them beat Wall Street estimates.

Source: CNN

The Associated Press, reporting the same results, said ExxonMobil's net income more than doubled to $3.72 a share, with adjusted profit of $4.23 a share against an average analyst estimate of $4.12, and revenue up 33% to $113.16 billion in the three months ended in September. The Spring, Texas-based company raised its quarterly dividend to $1.07 and set a $20 billion stock buyback plan. Houston-based Chevron earned $9.9 billion, or $5.06 a share, as revenue surged 36% to $67.8 billion. Exxon shares rose 1.3% in Friday morning trading and are up 64% over the past 12 months; Chevron climbed 1.8%.

Source: Associated Press via Barchart

$15.4 billionExxonMobil third-quarter profit — slightly more than double a year earlier
$10.4 billionChevron adjusted earnings — up 186% year over year
$56.3 billionCombined adjusted third-quarter profit of the five Western oil majors
$6.32 a gallonPrice of diesel in the US — up 71% since last year, after passing $6 for the first time last month (AAA via AP)
$4.12 a gallonAverage US gasoline price across the third quarter — up 96 cents on a year earlier and the highest quarterly average on record (AAA via CNN)
$1,184Extra amount the average US household has paid for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel since the war began (Moody's Analytics via CNN)

Refineries, not just oil wells, made the money

Refining — turning crude oil into gasoline and diesel — drove the quarter, according to a tally of the five majors' releases: Exxon's refining division earned a record $9.05 billion, almost five times a year earlier, and Chevron's refineries earned a record $4.93 billion, about four times the year-ago figure. War damage and disruption have taken about 10% of the world's fuel-making capacity offline, Bloomberg reported, which means the refineries still running can charge far more for every gallon they produce. Exxon's US Gulf Coast refineries ran at 100% utilisation, with Gulf Coast diesel production at the second-highest level on record, and Chevron's US refineries ran at 98%, processing more than 1 million barrels of crude a day.

Source: Five-majors tally, Unbiased Headlines (Bloomberg reporting)

ExxonMobil chairman and CEO Darren Woods pointed to investments such as the expansion of the company's Beaumont refinery in Texas, which has lifted its distillate — diesel-type fuel — production by about 40% since 2019. Chevron chairman and CEO Mike Wirth said the company signed agreements cutting its Bakken midstream costs by about half. Both companies also produced at record levels in key fields: Exxon in Guyana and the Permian Basin in the American Southwest, and Chevron at assets in the Eastern Mediterranean and Australia.

Source: Associated Press via Barchart

What drivers and truckers are paying

The other side of the profit figures is the price at the pump. Diesel — the fuel that moves America's trucks — costs about $6.32 a gallon, up 71% since last year, and it passed $6 a gallon last month, a record, according to AAA figures cited by the AP. Regular gasoline is up about 38% in the past year, and its third-quarter average of $4.12 a gallon was the highest quarterly average on record. Moody's Analytics estimates the average US household has now paid $1,184 more for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel since the war began — money that shows up again in grocery and delivery prices, because almost everything on a store shelf arrived by truck.

Source: Associated Press via Barchart

Why this hits Punjabi truckers first

A large share of America's long-haul drivers — including thousands of Punjabi owner-operators on corridors like I-5, I-80 and I-40 — buy diesel at retail prices while freight rates adjust slowly. At $6.32 a gallon, a truck covering 600 miles a day at roughly 6.5 miles to the gallon spends about $580 a day on fuel alone, so every week diesel stays above $6 comes straight out of the owner's margin before loan, insurance and repair costs. That is why diesel, not gasoline, is the number truckers watch — and why state fuel-tax holidays, like the ones some officials are now offering, matter to them directly.

Why prices are this high: Hormuz and two wars

The conflict with Iran has impeded most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that previously carried about a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas, the AP reported, while the war in Ukraine has also cut into fuel-making capacity. Both Brent crude and benchmark US crude were above $100 a barrel on Friday, and Brent remains near the top of its range since the Iran war began — its most-traded contract peaked at nearly $120 a barrel in March. Crude prices have stayed volatile because traders still cannot see how or when the war ends.

Source: Associated Press via Barchart

Governments have repeatedly tried to cap the damage with emergency stock releases. At the beginning of October, the Group of Seven wealthy democracies announced a plan to release 100 million barrels of oil and fuel products in the coming weeks, starting with 'substantial' amounts of diesel. That followed a March announcement that International Energy Agency member countries would release 426 million barrels, with European Union countries committing about 92 million barrels, weighted toward refined products such as diesel.

Source: Associated Press via Barchart

Washington's moves, and the argument around them

President Donald Trump has been trying to bring down energy costs ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections, in which the cost of living is voters' top concern. Earlier this month he announced a deal to obtain diesel from Russia; Congress has criticised the deal as fuelling Russia's war against Ukraine and violating existing US laws, and the first tanker carrying Russian diesel to the United States set sail about a week ago, according to the AP. Separately, some state officials have been offering gasoline-tax holidays and similar measures to ease costs at the pump.

Source: Associated Press via Barchart

Venezuela, Guyana and the production push

Chevron's results include one month of production from Venezuela, where it has operated since 1923 and where it announced last month it will invest $7 billion over the next five years. Chevron also increased its holdings in the Bakken fields of North Dakota and Montana through its $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corp. last year, while its overall capital spending fell in the quarter because it spent less in the Permian Basin. Transport Topics, the trucking industry's trade publication, noted the same pattern in both companies' results: higher prices and record production, with refinery runs at or near full capacity.

Source: Transport Topics

What happens next

Analysts forecast both ExxonMobil and Chevron could report record profits for the full year, CNN reported, which would keep the political argument over fuel prices running well past Tuesday's vote: the companies and their shareholders are having one of their best years ever in the same year households have paid record prices for fuel. For drivers and truckers, the next things to watch are whether the G7's 100-million-barrel release actually reaches diesel markets in the coming weeks, whether the Russian-diesel arrangement survives the fight in Congress, and above all whether shipping through Hormuz reopens — because until crude and refining capacity return to normal, analysts expect pump prices to stay far above last year's levels.

What is solid

  • ExxonMobil reported $15.4 billion in third-quarter profit, more than double a year earlier, and Chevron $9.9 billion net ($10.4 billion adjusted, up 186%), in results released Friday, October 30 and reported by both CNN and the AP
  • Diesel averaged about $6.32 a gallon, up 71% year over year, and gasoline's third-quarter average was a record $4.12 a gallon, according to AAA figures cited by the AP and CNN
  • Refining drove the quarter: Exxon's refining arm earned a record $9.05 billion and Chevron's a record $4.93 billion, with about 10% of world fuel-making capacity offline

What is only claimed

  • The companies credit investment, record production and refinery performance for the results; critics and the White House's opponents argue the same figures show war-driven windfall gains paid for by households — the $1,184-per-household extra fuel cost is a Moody's Analytics estimate, not an audited figure
  • Whether the announced stock releases and the Russian-diesel deal will actually lower pump prices is unproven — both are plans and first steps, not yet measured price relief