WASHINGTON — US inflation accelerated in September, driven overwhelmingly by fuel. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4% in August, and was up 3.7% over the 12 months to September, up from 3.4% in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in its October 14 release (USDL-26-1574). The annual figure came in above the 3.6% economists had expected.

Source: Ticker Grove, reporting the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics September CPI release (USDL-26-1574)

3.7%US inflation, year to September
+9.1%Gasoline prices in September alone
2.6%Core inflation, year to September

The gasoline index rose 9.1% in September and accounted for over half of the monthly increase in overall prices, BLS said. The broader energy index rose 5.2% in the month and 20.4% over the year, with gasoline up 34.2% over 12 months and fuel oil up about 74% over the year. For trucking families and freight operators, that fuel spike feeds straight into running costs on every route.

Price pressure was not only about fuel. Core inflation — all items less food and energy — rose 0.3% in September and 2.6% over the year, up from 2.4% in August, Copiafy's summary of the BLS release noted. Shelter costs rose 0.4% in the month and 3.2% over the year. Food prices were unchanged overall in September: food at home fell 0.1% while food away from home rose 0.2%.

Source: Copiafy — September 2026 CPI rises 3.7% as gasoline prices jump

The report sets up the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting on October 27-28. ING's preview expects the Fed to hold rates steady in October before a possible hike in December, noting that comments from Vice Chairs Philip Jefferson and Michelle Bowman and Governor Chris Waller signalling no rush to decide quickly calmed markets after the surprise 0.3% monthly core print had briefly pushed the chances of an October hike above 50%. ING says inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target while recent jobs numbers have been disappointing, leaving the decision unlikely to be unanimous.

Source: ING Think — Federal Reserve preview: a pause before a December hike

What happens next depends on the data the Fed weighs this week and on whether fuel prices keep climbing: a hold in October would still leave December open, and households will feel the September fuel jump at the pump and in delivery and freight costs long after the meeting ends.