More than 1.28 million Tennessee voters cast their ballots during early voting for the November 3 midterms — 45 per cent more than the state's early vote in the 2022 midterms, according to data collected by the Tennessee Secretary of State's office and reported as the final early-voting numbers were confirmed on Monday, November 2. The total fell about 98,000 votes short of equalling the early-voting turnout of the 2018 midterms, the state's modern high-water mark.
Source: Tennessee Lookout reporting on Tennessee Secretary of State data, via The Best Times
The breadth of the increase is as notable as its size: all Tennessee counties except Johnson County recorded more early votes than in 2022. The surge was confirmed independently in regional reporting on Monday, which put Tennessee's early turnout at more than 1.28 million — a 45 per cent increase on the last midterm cycle — alongside Virginia's parallel jump to more than 1.6 million early ballots.
Source: 96.9 WXBQ, Nov 2, 2026
Memphis and Shelby County: up on 2022, just short of 2018
Shelby County, home to Memphis, tallied 183,896 early votes — up over 52 per cent from 2022, but falling 2.5 per cent behind its 2018 turnout. Neighbouring Fayette County exceeded its 2018 early turnout by 0.45 per cent, with 9,593 early votes. Williamson County, a reliably Republican stronghold south of Nashville, logged 73,450 early votes, 1.4 per cent behind 2018. Maury County outpaced 2018 by 1.2 per cent with 19,870 votes, and Rutherford County recorded 2.5 per cent more early votes than in 2018, with 67,625. Montgomery County, in the new 5th congressional district, reported a 4.8 per cent bump over its 2018 early turnout, with 32,636 votes, though that district's rural counties lagged 2018 by anywhere from 2 per cent to 23.5 per cent.
Source: Tennessee Lookout reporting on Tennessee Secretary of State data, via The Best Times
The 2018 comparison carries history. That cycle produced Democrats' best statewide performance in Tennessee in any election since 2006 — though Democratic candidates still failed to flip any congressional seats. Shelby and Williamson counties were both identified in the reporting as key to the outcome of this year's congressional races, and both finished just short of their 2018 early-vote marks.
Source: Tennessee Lookout reporting, via The Best Times
Why these counties decide more than turnout bragging rights
Turnout in West and Middle Tennessee could be particularly influential this year because the Tennessee legislature redrew the state's congressional district maps in May, in a redraw reported to give Republican candidates better odds. The new U.S. House District 9 — which historically included the majority of Memphis — now stretches from the Memphis airport along Tennessee's southern border and then up to encompass a portion of Williamson County. It includes portions of Shelby, Fayette, Williamson and Maury counties, a small sliver of Rutherford County and several rural counties.
Source: Tennessee Lookout reporting, via The Best Times
In that redrawn 9th district, Democratic state Representative Justin Pearson is fighting to keep the seat blue despite the new boundaries, against Republican state Senator Brent Taylor. Early-voting turnout across the district's counties was a mixed bag compared with 2018: Moore and Bedford counties both came out slightly ahead of their 2018 early turnout, while the rest of the district's rural counties — Hardeman, McNairy, Hardin, Wayne, Lawrence, Giles, Lincoln and Marshall — fell behind. The new 5th congressional district likewise stitches together parts of Shelby, Tipton, Montgomery, Maury and Williamson counties with rural Northwest and Middle Tennessee counties.
Source: Tennessee Lookout reporting, via The Best Times
Early-vote totals show who has participated, not how they voted, and Tennessee's ballots are not counted until Election Day. A 45 per cent jump on 2022 proves engagement surged in almost every county; it does not by itself prove that final turnout will rise by the same amount, or which party benefits — some of the increase may be voters who previously voted on Election Day simply voting earlier.
For Tennessee's smaller but growing Punjabi and South Asian communities — concentrated around Memphis, Nashville and the state's trucking and logistics corridors along I-40, I-24 and I-75 — the practical point is the same as everywhere else in this cycle: with nearly 1.3 million ballots already banked, the remaining Election Day vote will be cast by a smaller, harder-to-predict slice of the electorate, and close congressional races drawn under the new May maps may turn on exactly that slice.
Source: Tennessee Lookout reporting, via The Best Times
What happens next
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Tennesseans who have not yet voted can check their registration status and find their polling location at GoVoteTN.gov, the Secretary of State's voter portal cited in Monday's reporting. Final turnout — and whether the state closes the remaining ~98,000-vote gap to 2018 once Election Day ballots are added — will be known once polls close and counties report on Tuesday night.