On Saturday night the forecast crest was 16.9 feet — close to, but below, the 1911 record. Sunday's revised forecasts put the river above that record, and the crest is expected late tonight. Read Saturday's story
PAGOSA SPRINGS, Colorado — The number Pagosa Springs was bracing for has changed, and it has changed in the wrong direction. The National Weather Service forecast on Sunday put the San Juan River's crest in this southwestern Colorado town at 19.71 feet late on Sunday night, at about 11 p.m. — nearly two feet above the historic record of 17.8 feet set by the October 1911 flood that wiped out most of what was then the town of Pagosa, according to the Archuleta County Sheriff's Office. KSUT Public Radio reported that the Weather Service had revised its prediction overnight to nearly 20 feet tonight, and an editor's note on the Pagosa Daily Post's county update pointed to a NOAA river-gauge page estimating a peak as high as 21.9 feet. The forecasts differ by model run, but every current version puts the river above the 1911 mark.
Source: KSUT Public Radio
Archuleta County's Sunday-morning evacuation update left no room for interpretation: "If you are in an evacuation zone, you must leave now. This includes all low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo, and Piedra Rivers. Do not wait for the water to rise. Do not wait for another warning. Leave now." Mandatory evacuation orders cover the county's low-lying river corridors and, inside the town of Pagosa Springs, residents, businesses and visitors in threatened areas along the San Juan River corridor. All businesses along the river in downtown Pagosa Springs were ordered closed from 6 a.m. on Sunday until further notice, and Town Hall, the Community Center, the Visitor Center and the town maintenance offices are also closed, according to the county update published by the Pagosa Daily Post.
Source: Pagosa Daily Post / Archuleta County
What changed since Saturday night
When Awaaz Punjab published its earlier story on Saturday night (11:45 p.m. ET), the county's 8 p.m. update forecast a crest of 16.9 feet around midnight on Sunday — a dangerous flood, but still below the record. At an emergency meeting on Saturday, Pagosa Springs town manager David Harris told KSUT the Weather Service was then expecting a peak of about 17 feet early on Monday, and reminded residents that last week's flood had peaked at 15 feet by the town's measure (the county put last week's crest at 15.5 feet). Through Sunday the projections climbed past both figures and past the record itself, which is why officials spent Sunday repeating one instruction — leave — rather than debating the exact number.
Roads closed, and a warning about rescues
The county's road list is long. State Highway 151 is impassable near mile marker 27. County Road 337 (Carrico Street) is closed, County Road 339 is impassable at its southern end, County Road 500 is closed from mile marker 21 to 14.5 and again from the Montezuma Bridge at mile marker 14.5 into town, and North Pagosa Boulevard is closed from Mission to the Hills Circle area, with alternate access via Piedra Road. San Juan Street and Hermosa Street in Pagosa Springs closed to through traffic from 6 a.m. on Sunday. Local reporting also said U.S. Highway 160 — the main road into Pagosa Springs — was scheduled to close to inbound traffic from 4 p.m. on Sunday. Drivers are directed to Colorado's official COtrip service for state highways and to the Archuleta County Sheriff's Office and Town of Pagosa pages for county and town roads.
The county said it was bringing in additional search-and-rescue resources, including ground and air support and the Colorado National Guard, KSUT reported. But Vicki Shaffer of the Archuleta County Sheriff's Office warned residents who choose to stay that help may not arrive when they need it: "We understand some people may not choose to evacuate. We just want the public to understand that help may not be immediately available to rescue people tomorrow evening and Monday morning."
Where to go tonight
Open Door Church is available as a shelter tonight, and the Pagosa Lakes Property Owners Association Clubhouse shelter reopened at 1 p.m. on Sunday, the county said. Small animals are being housed at the Humane Society at 465 Cloman Boulevard, and large animals may be taken to the Archuleta County Fairgrounds at 344 Highway 84. Individuals and families whose primary residence is under a mandatory evacuation order may be eligible for an Airbnb credit for up to 28 nights through Airbnb.org — the county says to dial 211 for information. Anyone in immediate danger or needing emergency evacuation help should call 911.
The county's warning is blunt: it takes just 6 inches of moving water to knock an adult off their feet, and about 12 inches to carry away most passenger vehicles. Floodwater can hide washed-out roads and debris. Do not drive or walk through it, and do not return to evacuated areas until officials issue an all-clear.
Background: the second flood in about ten days
This is the same river, and the same town, that flooded roughly a week and a half ago. Last week's crest — 15 to 15.5 feet depending on the measure officials cited — already forced evacuations across the region; reporting on Sunday said Archuleta County had suffered damage to more than 500 homes and 150 miles of road in the earlier flood, and Governor Jared Polis has requested a federal major disaster declaration, with almost $27 million in public damage already confirmed, according to reports summarising the state's request. On top of the rain — about 3 inches expected for the Pagosa Springs area from Sunday into Monday morning — a winter weather warning covers the surrounding mountains for the same period, with up to 18 inches of snow possible depending on elevation. A flood watch also covers a wider area through Tuesday, including Alamosa, Creede, Del Norte, Durango, Mancos, Monte Vista and South Fork, and pre-evacuation orders were in effect on Sunday for parts of Rio Grande and Mineral counties along the South Fork of the Rio Grande River, including Del Norte, Monte Vista and South Fork.
What happens next
The crest is expected late on Sunday night into early Monday — the Weather Service forecast pointed to about 11 p.m. — and a flood warning for the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs runs from Sunday morning to Monday morning. What the river actually does tonight will decide whether Pagosa Springs has broken a 115-year-old record and how much damage a town still cleaning up from last week has to absorb. Officials say evacuated residents must stay out until an all-clear is issued, because high water, damaged roads and unstable structures can remain dangerous after the peak passes. Awaaz Punjab will update this story when the gauge readings and the first damage reports come in.