China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have provisionally agreed on about 80 percent of a long-negotiated code of conduct for the South China Sea, but the talks will not be concluded this year as the two sides had agreed, three senior Southeast Asian diplomats with direct knowledge of the negotiations told The Associated Press on Wednesday, November 11.

Source: Associated Press

The diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the talks publicly, said the assessment followed the final round of this year's negotiations last month. Negotiations will now continue next year, when ASEAN's rotating leadership passes to Singapore. China and Malaysia, which currently oversees the bloc's overall relations with Beijing, jointly led at least 10 major rounds of negotiations this year, and the Philippines, which led the bloc this year, initiated meetings at least once a month to give negotiators more time to resolve issues.

What still divides the negotiators

According to the three diplomats, the last major sticking points are the geographic scope the agreement will cover, the definition of sensitive terms, and whether the accord should be legally binding or not. Those questions go to the heart of the dispute: China and four ASEAN member states — Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam — along with Taiwan, have been locked in decades-long territorial standoffs in the busy waterway, which is a key global trade route and is believed to sit atop undersea oil and gas deposits.

About 80%Share of the code-of-conduct paragraphs provisionally agreed, per three Southeast Asian diplomats (AP)
2005Year China and ASEAN began negotiating the code of conduct
2023Year the two sides agreed to speed up talks and conclude them by this year
10+Major negotiating rounds jointly led by China and Malaysia this year

China and ASEAN began negotiating the so-called code of conduct in 2005 to prevent occasional confrontations in the disputed waters from turning into a major conflict that could threaten Asia's economies. The accord mainly calls for self-restraint and discourages aggressive acts that could spark clashes. After years of closed-door negotiations, at times delayed by tense clashes in the contested waters, the two sides agreed in 2023 to speed up the process and finish by this year — the deadline that will now be missed.

Confrontations have escalated particularly between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces in disputed shoals in recent years, AP reported. The contested territory has long been feared as an Asian flashpoint and has become a sensitive front in the US-China rivalry: Washington has repeatedly warned that it is obligated to defend the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, if Filipino forces come under an armed attack, including in the South China Sea, while China has warned the United States to stay away from what it calls a purely Asian dispute.

Manila-based geopolitical analyst Julio Amador III told AP the proposed code may not be able to totally deter aggression in the disputed waters, but combined with other actions, including foreign diplomacy and a strengthened military capability, it can make would-be aggressors think twice. "Restraining great powers takes a lot of effort," Amador said. "We cannot be a one-trick pony as a country. You need to have all the tools, whether it's a code of conduct, whether you bring a case against China or whether you increase your military spending."

What happens next: the status of the negotiations, and continuing incidents in the South China Sea, will be high on the agenda when ASEAN leaders hold their annual summit in Manila starting this weekend, where they will also engage leaders of Asian and Western nations, including the United States and China. The unfinished code then passes to Singapore's ASEAN chairmanship next year, with the hardest questions — scope, definitions and binding force — still open.