WELLINGTON — Labour has edged ahead of National on the party vote as New Zealand's election-night count approached 40 per cent, but the seat maths still points — by the narrowest possible margin — to the incumbent coalition holding power.

Source: NZ Electoral Commission results feed via NewsWire

The Electoral Commission's results feed at 9.05 p.m. on Saturday 7 November showed 1,513,012 votes counted, which the commission put at 39.8 per cent of the total, from 35.2 per cent of voting places. Labour, led by Chris Hipkins, had 29.88 per cent of the party vote and National, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, had 29.35 per cent — a gap of about 8,000 votes.

Behind the two big parties, the Greens were on 14.06 per cent, ACT on 10.54 per cent, New Zealand First on 9.35 per cent and the Opportunity Party on 5.42 per cent — just above the 5 per cent threshold it needs to enter Parliament without winning an electorate seat.

Why the party-vote leader is not winning the seats

National was leading in 42 of the 71 electorates — more seats than its share of the party vote would normally earn it. Under New Zealand's MMP system that means National would get no list MPs at all, and every electorate win above its proportional share becomes an overhang seat. Te Pati Maori was leading in five of the seven Maori electorates while winning only 0.60 per cent of the party vote, which adds a second large overhang.

Together the two overhangs push Parliament out to 131 seats on the commission's current calculation, so 66 seats are needed to govern. On those numbers National has 42 seats, ACT 13 and New Zealand First 11 — a combined 66. Labour has 36, the Greens 17 and Te Pati Maori 5 — a combined 58. The Opportunity Party has 7 seats, and even with Opportunity, a Labour-led bloc would reach only 65.

That is a one-seat margin with three in five votes still to count, and a single electorate changing hands could tip it either way. RNZ had flagged the scenario in its pre-election analysis, noting that the larger any National overhang, the better its chances of returning the current coalition.

The seats that could flip the night

Several electorate races are close enough to move the seat maths on their own. In Hutt South, Labour's Ginny Andersen led National's Chris Bishop by 828 votes with 43.5 per cent counted. In Mt Roskill, National's Carlos Cheung led Labour's Michael Wood by 147 votes, and in Hamilton East National's Ryan Hamilton was 104 votes ahead of Labour's Georgie Dansey. In Nelson, National's Blair Cameron led Labour's Rachel Boyack by 242 votes, and in Whangarei National's Lloyd Budd was 206 votes ahead of Labour's Gary Payinda.

In Epsom, ACT leader David Seymour led National's Paul Goldsmith by 1,204 votes, keeping ACT's electorate safety net in place. In Auckland Central, the Green Party's Chloe Swarbrick was 2,287 votes ahead of National's Candace Kinser. In the Maori electorates, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke had a 7,551-vote lead in Hauraki-Waikato.

Polls closed at 7 p.m. The early figures are dominated by advance votes — nearly 1.67 million people voted before election day — so the order of the two big parties could change several times before the night is out.

What happens next

Election night is not the final word. The commission's feed already records more than 172,000 special votes, which are not part of tonight's count. Special votes include those cast by overseas voters, people who enrolled late and people who voted outside their electorate, and in past elections they have shifted the final seat count by one or two seats. Official results, including overseas ballots, are scheduled for release by 27 November.

The final pre-election poll, published on Friday, had Labour on 30.7 per cent and National on 26.4 per cent. On tonight's numbers Labour's vote is close to that poll, while National is running about three points ahead of it. With the gap between the two leaders under one percentage point, the outcome may not be clear until far more of the count is in.